November Ursuline Intra Team Scrimmage

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 2 11 11
2 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Seniors 14 14
3 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 2 25 25
4 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 1 32 32
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 2 34 34
6 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 1 38 38
7 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 1 43 43
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 11 Emily Threeton '22 [1-6]
Emily Williams '23 [7]
Emily Williams '23 [1-6]
Emily Threeton '22 [7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Seniors 1 1 2 1 2 4 3 14 Cassidy O'Brien '21 [1-4, 7]
Karen Stiegler '21 [5-6]
Kate Ford '21 [1-6]
Karen Stiegler '21 [7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 2 4 5 3 3 3 2 5 25 Emerson Goodlett '24 [1-7]
Madelyn Oster '24 [1-6]
Zoe Hozenthal '24 [7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 1 5 4 7 4 6 5 1 32 Julia Poche '24
Evie Barras '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 2 3 6 4 DNS 4 3 6 34 Meghan Keen '22
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 1 7 3 5 5 5 6 7 38 Isabella White '22
Caitlyn Hall '22
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 1 6 7 6 6 7 7 4 43 Victoria Vandenweghe '23 [1-7]
Sibria Adams '23 [1-6]
Josephine Lackey '23 [7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-Blue 13333333
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-Blue 24444444
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-Pink 15555555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-Pink 26666666
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-Seniors2222222
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-White 17777777
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-White 28888888
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 1 Victoria Vandenweghe '23 [1-7] Sibria Adams '23 [1-6]
Josephine Lackey '23 [7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 2 Emily Threeton '22 [1-6]
Emily Williams '23 [7]
Emily Williams '23 [1-6]
Emily Threeton '22 [7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 1 Isabella White '22 Caitlyn Hall '22
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 2 Meghan Keen '22 Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Seniors Cassidy O'Brien '21 [1-4, 7]
Karen Stiegler '21 [5-6]
Kate Ford '21 [1-6]
Karen Stiegler '21 [7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 1 Julia Poche '24 Evie Barras '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 2 Emerson Goodlett '24 [1-7] Madelyn Oster '24 [1-6]
Zoe Hozenthal '24 [7]

Conditions — 11/07/2020 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From ENE (70°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine4.8 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1017.5 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ursuline Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.31
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.70 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ursuline Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Ursuline Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →