Superbowl Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 5 5
2 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 14 14
3 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 20 20
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 25 25
5 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 26 26
6 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 27 27
7 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 33 33
8 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 40 40
9 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 45 45
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Karya Basaraner '24
Avery Benefield '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 5 3 2 2 2 14 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Ashley Hilton '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 4 5 3 3 5 20 Aiden Castle '25
Lane Burroughs '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 2 6 4 6 7 25 Karoline Burroughs '26
Emma Harris '28
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 3 2 7 DNS 4 26 Harriss Thorne '23
Malachi Sheahan '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 7 7 5 5 3 27 Fynn Erichson '24
Michael Dawley '26
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 9 8 6 4 6 33 Caleb Kaiser '25
Aidan Johnson '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 6 4 DNF DNS DNS 40 Devon Long '24
Ruston Breisacher '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 8 9 8 DNF DNS 45 Kade Johnston '26
Jason Zhang '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 133333
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 277777
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 11919191919
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 21818181818
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 32626262626
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 444444
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 51717171717
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6130130130130130

Conditions — 02/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1016.7 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.4 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From NNW (334°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine3.4 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1016.7 hPa Rain0.15 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.57 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →