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Rock the New Year

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 22 22
2 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7 25 25
3 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 26 26
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 30 30
5 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 38 38
6 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 48 48
7 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 56 56
8 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 66 66
9 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 77 77
10 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 4 81 81
11 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 82 82
12 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 89 89
13 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 101 101
14 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 114 114
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 4 2 4 2 4 3 1 2 22 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Ashley Hilton '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7 2 4 2 1 2 4 6 4 25 Aiden Castle '25
Lane Burroughs '24
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 1 1 1 4 DNF 1 2 1 26 Karya Basaraner '24
Elinor Reyher '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 3 3 3 3 6 2 3 7 30 Devon Long '24
Ruston Breisacher '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 5 5 5 6 1 5 8 3 38 Fynn Erichson '24
Michael Dawley '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 7 7 7 8 3 7 4 5 48 Jonah Grumme '26
Jackson Timberlake '27
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 6 11 6 7 7 8 5 6 56 Karoline Burroughs '26
Emma Harris '28
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 9 6 DNF 5 5 6 11 9 66 Harriss Thorne '23 [1-8]
Mcclellan Peters '24 [1, 4-5]
Aidan Johnson '26 [2-3, 6-8]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 8 10 12 11 9 9 10 8 77 Caleb Kaiser '25 [1-8]
Aidan Johnson '26 [1, 4-5]
Sawyer Villarreal '24 [2-3, 6-8]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 4 DNS 9 8 9 10 12 7 11 81 Malachi Sheahan '23
Legend Joseph '25
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 11 8 9 10 11 11 12 10 82 Landon Newton '26
Kade Johnston '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 10 DNS 10 12 8 10 9 DNS 89 Estella Holland '26
Ella Ory '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 12 12 11 13 12 13 13 DNS 101 Maggie Lob '26
Emma Pscenicka '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 DNF DNF 13 14 13 DNS 14 DNS 114 Kaybree Cushenberry '26 [1, 7-8]
Julie Mavor '26 [2, 4-6]
Piper Long '27 [3]
Julie Mavor '26 [1, 7-8]
Kaybree Cushenberry '26 [2, 4-6]
Elle Goodwin '27 [3]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 211111111
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 322222222
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 433333333
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 187198719871987198719871987198719
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 287178717871787178717871787178717
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 32626262626262626
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4130130130130130130130130
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 511111111
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 677777777
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 787188718871887188718871887188718
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 144444444
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 255555555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 366666666

Conditions — 01/21/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From ENE (70°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.7 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1018.0 hPa Rain0.32 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.28
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.33 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →