| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Saint Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 1–1 |
| 2 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 1–1 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,534 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 3 matches (33%) with a log-loss of 1.135 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 2 | 1.82 school +0.06, home +0.08 | Aidan Castle / Lane Burroughs 0.84 Devon Long / Ruston Breisacher 0.80 Landon Newton / Kade Johnston 0.03 | 20% | 2–1 (67%) | +1.4 |
| 2 | Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays | 1 | 3.58 school +0.18 | Aidan Mckoin / Matthew Brown 0.91 David Karcher / Harrison Dietz 1.23 Arthur Meade / Thomas Denning 1.18 | 80% | 1–2 (33%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Stanislaus | 1.82 | 4.46 | 2–1 | 0.6 | +2.64 | 2.2 | 11% |
| 2 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 3.58 | 0.93 | 1–2 | 2.4 | −2.64 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Castle | Saint Stanislaus | 0.84 | 3.48 | 2–1 | 0.6 | +2.64 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Devon Long | Saint Stanislaus | 0.80 | 3.44 | 2–1 | 0.6 | +2.64 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Landon Newton | Saint Stanislaus | 0.03 | 2.67 | 2–1 | 0.6 | +2.64 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Aidan Mckoin | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.91 | -1.73 | 1–2 | 2.4 | −2.64 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Arthur Meade | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 1.18 | -1.46 | 1–2 | 2.4 | −2.64 | 2.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Saint Stanislaus | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 21% | upset |
| 2 | 2 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | Saint Stanislaus | 80% | |
| 3 | 3 | Saint Stanislaus | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 20% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Saint Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Aidan Castle '25 Devon Long '24 Landon Newton '26 |
Lane Burroughs '24 Ruston Breisacher '24 Kade Johnston '26 |
|
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | Aidan Mckoin '26 Arthur Meade '27 David Karcher '26 |
Matthew Brown '26 Thomas Denning '28 Harrison Dietz '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
