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Superbowl Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 4 4
2 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 13 13
3 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 13 13
4 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 14 14
5 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 16 16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 1 1 1 4 Karya Basaraner '24 [1-4]
Elinor Reyher '26 [1-2]
Jonathan Shi '25 [3-4]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 3 4 4 2 13 Devon Long '24
Ruston Breisacher '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 5 2 3 3 13 Landon Newton '26
Michael Dawley '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 2 3 5 4 14 Karoline Burroughs '26
Lane Burroughs '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 4 5 2 5 16 Kade Johnston '26
Jason Zhang '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons5555
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 17777
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 226262626
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 48718871887188718
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons Karya Basaraner '24 [1-4] Elinor Reyher '26 [1-2]
Jonathan Shi '25 [3-4]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 Kade Johnston '26 Jason Zhang '27
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Landon Newton '26 Michael Dawley '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 Devon Long '24 Ruston Breisacher '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 Karoline Burroughs '26 Lane Burroughs '24

Conditions — 02/10/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 89%  ·  Pressure 1015.2 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From SSE (155°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1015.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.42)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →