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NOLA Great Oaks Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 1 10 10
2 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 20 20
3 Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 24 24
4 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 39 39
5 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 2 41 41
6 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 43 43
7 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 55 55
8 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 56 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 10 Ellie Menszer '22 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Ashley Alfortish '23 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Ashley Alfortish '23 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Ellie Menszer '22 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 2 20 Harriss Thorne '23 [1-8]
Elise Poche '23 [1, 4-5]
Sahana Jaligam '22 [2-3, 6-8]
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 2 2 3 5 3 3 1 5 24 Kate Gibbons '23
Georgia Gibbons '26
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 4 4 6 2 7 5 7 4 39 Caleb Keister '22
R.Ellis Beasley '22
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 2 5 5 8 7 5 4 4 3 41 Jack Laurent '24
Sullivan Reznik '30
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink 6 6 5 3 4 7 6 6 43 Emily Threeton '22
Emily Williams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White 8 7 4 8 8 8 5 7 55 Isabella White '22 [1-2]
Meghan Keen '22 [3-8]
Sibria Adams '23 [1-2]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue 7 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 56 Emerson Goodlett '24 [1-3, 7-8]
Evie Barras '24 [4-6]
Madelyn Oster '24 [1-3, 7-8]
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24 [4-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2020 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons12345678
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies 121876543
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies 234567812
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays43218765
Mount Carmel AcademyMount Carmel Academy CUBS56781234
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-Blue78123456
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-Pink65432187
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions-White87654321
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons Harriss Thorne '23 [1-8] Elise Poche '23 [1, 4-5]
Sahana Jaligam '22 [2-3, 6-8]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 1 Ellie Menszer '22 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Ashley Alfortish '23 [2, 4, 6, 8]		 Ashley Alfortish '23 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Ellie Menszer '22 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 2 Jack Laurent '24 Sullivan Reznik '30
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays Caleb Keister '22 R.Ellis Beasley '22
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS Kate Gibbons '23 Georgia Gibbons '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Blue Emerson Goodlett '24 [1-3, 7-8]
Evie Barras '24 [4-6]		 Madelyn Oster '24 [1-3, 7-8]
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24 [4-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-Pink Emily Threeton '22 Emily Williams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions-White Isabella White '22 [1-2]
Meghan Keen '22 [3-8]		 Sibria Adams '23 [1-2]

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 3.6 kn
Gusts to 9.9 kn
From ENE (60°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at New Orleans Yacht Club: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Orleans Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at New Orleans Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →