ISSA Great Oaks Invitational Green

HostSouthern Yacht Club
Date11/20/2021
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	40	40
2	Portland High School	Bulldogs	46	46
3	Fairhope High School	Pirates	51	51
4	Isidore Newman School	Greenies	55	55
5	Palmer Trinity School	Flacons	58	58
6	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRM Blue	59	59
7	John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	61	61
8	Harbor Springs Sailing Team	Rams	74	74
9	St. Michael Catholic High School	Cardinals	74	74
10	Bayshore Christian School	Eagles	86	86
11	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	95	95
12	Ursuline Academy	Lions	111	111
13	UMS-Wright	Bulldogs - Varsity	116	116
14	Choctawhatchee High School	Indians	128	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	5	OCS	3	4	5	1	2	1	3	1	40	Alex Kowaleski '24 Abbie Catalano '24
Portland High School	Bulldogs	4	1	4	5	2	5	5	3	DSQ	2	46	Eva Ermlich '22 Gregg O'Rourke '22
Fairhope High School	Pirates	1	2	1	1	11	9	7	6	9	4	51	Cruz Dabney '26 [1-4, 7-8] Elijah Healy '22 [5-6] Coleman Kennedy '25 [9-10] Coleman Kennedy '25 [1-6] Layton Dugger '26 [7-10]
Isidore Newman School	Greenies	14	6	2	2	3	4	6	4	5	9	55	Ellie Menszer '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ashley Alfortish '23 [3-4, 7-8] Ashley Alfortish '23 [1-2] Ellie Menszer '22 [3-4] Jack Laurent '24 [5-10]
Palmer Trinity School	Flacons	2	3	7	OCS	4	8	1	12	1	5	58	Ryan Keenan '24 [1-2, 5-8] Brayden Benesch '24 [3-4, 9-10] Carlos Roig '24 [1-2, 7-10] Reece Weber '24 [3-6]
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRM Blue	8	5	5	3	8	3	3	10	6	8	59	Owen Bannasch '22 John Riordan '22
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	3	4	10	8	1	2	11	9	7	6	61	Thomas Mazzeo '22 Matei Porcelli '25
Harbor Springs Sailing Team	Rams	7	8	6	7	9	13	OCS	2	4	3	74	Maren Matthews '22 Holly Novak '23
St. Michael Catholic High School	Cardinals	12	10	8	6	6	6	9	5	2	10	74	Nate Hartwell '24 [1-10] Robert Montgomery '22 [1-2] Ava Cocke '23 [3-10]
Bayshore Christian School	Eagles	9	9	9	10	7	11	4	7	8	12	86	Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 9-10] Aidyn James '25 [3-8] John French '22 [1-4, 7-8] Cruz Dabney '26 [5-6] Aidyn James '25 [9-10]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	6	7	11	9	10	12	12	11	10	7	95	Santiago Echevarria '22 [1-2, 7-8] Jimmy Sohigian '24 [3-6, 9-10] Jimmy Sohigian '24 [1-2, 7-8] Santiago Echevarria '22 [3-6, 9-10]
Ursuline Academy	Lions	11	11	14	11	13	7	10	8	13	13	111	Emily Threeton '22 [1-4, 7-8] Emerson Goodlett '24 [5-6, 9-10] Emily Williams '23 [1-4, 7-8] Madelyn Oster '24 [5-6, 9-10]
UMS-Wright	Bulldogs - Varsity	10	12	13	13	14	10	8	14	11	11	116	Isabelle Gautier '22 [1-10] March Tremayne '22 [1-2] Loram Segee '22 [3-10]
Choctawhatchee High School	Indians	13	13	12	12	12	14	13	13	12	14	128	Emmett Beaty '26 Aidan Beaty '24

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.210+0.21

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Bayshore Christian School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Choctawhatchee High School Indians	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Fairhope High School Pirates	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Harbor Springs Sailing Team Rams	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Isidore Newman School Greenies	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	22	22
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	16	16	18	18	20	20	22	22	24	24
Loyola Academy Ramblers	18	18	20	20	22	22	24	24	26	26
Palmer Trinity School Flacons	20	20	22	22	24	24	26	26	28	28
Portland High School Bulldogs	22	22	24	24	26	26	28	28	2	2
St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals	24	24	26	26	28	28	2	2	4	4
UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity	26	26	28	28	2	2	4	4	6	6
Ursuline Academy Lions	28	28	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Bayshore Christian School	Eagles	Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 9-10] Aidyn James '25 [3-8]	John French '22 [1-4, 7-8] Cruz Dabney '26 [5-6] Aidyn James '25 [9-10]
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRM Blue	Owen Bannasch '22	John Riordan '22
Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	Alex Kowaleski '24	Abbie Catalano '24
Choctawhatchee High School	Indians	Emmett Beaty '26	Aidan Beaty '24
Fairhope High School	Pirates	Cruz Dabney '26 [1-4, 7-8] Elijah Healy '22 [5-6] Coleman Kennedy '25 [9-10]	Coleman Kennedy '25 [1-6] Layton Dugger '26 [7-10]
Harbor Springs Sailing Team	Rams	Maren Matthews '22	Holly Novak '23
Isidore Newman School	Greenies	Ellie Menszer '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ashley Alfortish '23 [3-4, 7-8]	Ashley Alfortish '23 [1-2] Ellie Menszer '22 [3-4] Jack Laurent '24 [5-10]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	Thomas Mazzeo '22	Matei Porcelli '25
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	Santiago Echevarria '22 [1-2, 7-8] Jimmy Sohigian '24 [3-6, 9-10]	Jimmy Sohigian '24 [1-2, 7-8] Santiago Echevarria '22 [3-6, 9-10]
Palmer Trinity School	Flacons	Ryan Keenan '24 [1-2, 5-8] Brayden Benesch '24 [3-4, 9-10]	Carlos Roig '24 [1-2, 7-10] Reece Weber '24 [3-6]
Portland High School	Bulldogs	Eva Ermlich '22	Gregg O'Rourke '22
St. Michael Catholic High School	Cardinals	Nate Hartwell '24 [1-10]	Robert Montgomery '22 [1-2] Ava Cocke '23 [3-10]
UMS-Wright	Bulldogs - Varsity	Isabelle Gautier '22 [1-10]	March Tremayne '22 [1-2] Loram Segee '22 [3-10]
Ursuline Academy	Lions	Emily Threeton '22 [1-4, 7-8] Emerson Goodlett '24 [5-6, 9-10]	Emily Williams '23 [1-4, 7-8] Madelyn Oster '24 [5-6, 9-10]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

ISSA Great Oaks Invitational Green

Division A

From the notes