NOYC Girls Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 6 10
2 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin 11 9 20
3 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 11 15 26
4 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 18 11 29
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 16 19 35
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 1 1 4 Grace Bates '20
Ava Anderson '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 2 4 2 3 11 Riley Reech '20
Corinne Martin '20
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin 4 2 3 2 11 Sarah Bancroft '19
Sahana Jaligam '22
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 3 3 5 5 16 Meghan Keen '22 [1-4]
Caitlyn Hall '22 [1-3]
Sarah Poche '19 [4]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 5 5 4 4 18 Kennedy Cooper '20
Sophie Chevis '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 1 2 1 6 Holland Duffy '20
Margaret Schuler '21
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin 1 2 3 3 9 London L'Hoste-Larson '19
Rachel Bancroft '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 5 3 1 2 11 Emily Threeton '22
Kristina Rosch '22
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 3 4 4 4 15 Cassidy O'Brien '21
Christina Scavo '20
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 4 5 5 5 19 Isabella White '22 [1-3]
Isabella Webster '22 [4]
Christina Basara '22 [1-3]
Mary Rose Neumeyer '21 [4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin2244
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights3355
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 14466
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 25522
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 36633

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin3355
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights4466
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 15522
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 26633
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 32244

Conditions — 09/08/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 77°F
Feels like 93°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From SSE (152°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1012.8 hPa Rain0.18 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Ursuline Academy: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.20 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ursuline Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Ursuline Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →