2019 Allstate Sugar Bowl Great Oaks Regatta GREEN

HostSouthern Yacht Club
Date11/23/2019
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Lake Travis High School	Cavaliers	43	43
2	Lutheran South Academy	Varsity	49	49
3	Isidore Newman School	Greenies	54	54
4	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	56	56
5	Portland High School	Bulldogs	70	70
6	John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	75	75
7	St. Patrick Catholic High School	Fighting Irish	91	91
8	Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	96	96
9	West Lake High School (TX)	Chaparrals	108	108
10	Fairhope High School	Pirates	108	108
11	St. Michael Catholic High School	Cardinals	109	109
12	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	120	120
13	Choctawhatchee High School	Indians	124	124
14	Ursuline Academy	Lions	156	156

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Lake Travis High School	Cavaliers	12	4	1	2	8	1	1	3	4	3	1	3	43	James Brock '24 [1-12] Vivian Heitkoetter '23 [1-4, 9-12] Zachary Ronhaar '23 [5-8]
Lutheran South Academy	Varsity	11	6	4	4	2	2	10	2	1	2	3	2	49	Stephen Momeier '23 [1-12] Noah Roberts '23 [1-2, 5-12] Reina Li '23 [3-4]
Isidore Newman School	Greenies	8	2	3	3	6	3	3	1	7	12	2	4	54	Emily Alfortish '21 [1-8] Thomas Kerrigan '22 [9-12] Jonathan Schrantz '20 [1-4, 9-10] Thomas Kerrigan '22 [5-8] Emily Alfortish '21 [11-12]
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	1	3	2	1	3	4	4	5	2	1	OCS	OCS	56	Joe Serpa '20 [1-4, 9-12] Miles Wolff '22 [5-8] Trent Bilodeau '21 [1-6, 9-12] Joe Serpa '20 [7-8]
Portland High School	Bulldogs	2	8	7	5	7	8	2	4	3	9	9	6	70	Eva Ermlich '22 [1-6, 11-12] Gavin Sanborn '21 [7-10] Jondall Norris '20 [1-6, 11-12]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	3	9	9	11	1	5	8	11	6	4	7	1	75	Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-6, 9-12] Neil Bunce '21 [7-8] Neil Bunce '21 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12] Andrew Todesco '22 [3-4, 7-10]
St. Patrick Catholic High School	Fighting Irish	7	11	6	8	5	BYE	6	9	11	8	5	7	91	James Edwards '21 Mary Ellen Edwards '23
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	OCS	1	5	9	13	9	12	13	5	5	4	5	96	Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-6, 9-12] Adrian Stone '20 [7-8] Paige Gorman '21 [1-6, 9-12]
West Lake High School (TX)	Chaparrals	4	7	12	6	11	7	7	8	9	11	11	OCS	108	Eric Jayawant '23 Annie Stockli '23
Fairhope High School	Pirates	5	5	14	13	4	10	9	7	12	7	12	10	108	Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 5-8, 10] Parker Fench '22 [3-4, 9] Elijah Healy '22 [11-12] Elijah Healy '22 [1-2, 5-8] Adler Rux '22 [3-4, 11-12] Cruz Dabney '26 [9] Parker Fench '22 [10]
St. Michael Catholic High School	Cardinals	6	12	11	7	12	6	11	6	13	10	6	9	109	Nate Hartwell '24 [1-12] Ava Cocke '23 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12] Sullivan Stankoski '23 [3-4, 9-10] Robert Montgomery '22 [7-8]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	9	10	8	10	14	13	5	10	10	13	10	8	120	Chloe Hudgins '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Coby Flannery '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12] Frederick Debiase '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cole Degner '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Choctawhatchee High School	Indians	10	13	10	12	10	11	13	12	8	6	8	11	124	Spencer Odom '21 [1-12] Matteo Arellano '21 [1-8] Paul Henderson '26 [9-12]
Ursuline Academy	Lions	13	14	13	14	9	12	14	14	14	14	13	12	156	Emily Threeton '22 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12] Kennedy Cooper '20 [3-4, 9-10] Isabella Webster '22 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Karen Stiegler '21 [3-4, 9-10] Kennedy Cooper '20 [5-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Choctawhatchee High School Indians	26	26	27	27	28	28	29	29	30	30	31	31
Cranbrook Kingswood Blue	27	27	28	28	29	29	30	30	31	31	32	32
Fairhope High School Pirates	28	28	29	29	30	30	31	31	32	32	33	33
Isidore Newman School Greenies	29	29	30	30	31	31	32	32	33	33	34	34
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	30	30	31	31	32	32	33	33	34	34	35	35
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	31	31	32	32	33	33	34	34	35	35	36	36
Lake Travis High School Cavaliers	32	32	33	33	34	34	35	35	36	36	37	37
Lutheran South Academy Varsity	33	33	34	34	35	35	36	36	37	37	38	38
Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	34	34	35	35	36	36	37	37	38	38	39	39
Portland High School Bulldogs	35	35	36	36	37	37	38	38	39	39	26	26
St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals	36	36	37	37	38	38	39	39	26	26	27	27
St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish	37	37	38	38	39	39	26	26	27	27	28	28
Ursuline Academy Lions	38	38	39	39	26	26	27	27	28	28	29	29
West Lake High School (TX) Chaparrals	39	39	26	26	27	27	28	28	29	29	30	30

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Choctawhatchee High School	Indians	Spencer Odom '21 [1-12]	Matteo Arellano '21 [1-8] Paul Henderson '26 [9-12]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-6, 9-12] Adrian Stone '20 [7-8]	Paige Gorman '21 [1-6, 9-12]
Fairhope High School	Pirates	Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 5-8, 10] Parker Fench '22 [3-4, 9] Elijah Healy '22 [11-12]	Elijah Healy '22 [1-2, 5-8] Adler Rux '22 [3-4, 11-12] Cruz Dabney '26 [9] Parker Fench '22 [10]
Isidore Newman School	Greenies	Emily Alfortish '21 [1-8] Thomas Kerrigan '22 [9-12]	Jonathan Schrantz '20 [1-4, 9-10] Thomas Kerrigan '22 [5-8] Emily Alfortish '21 [11-12]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	Chloe Hudgins '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Coby Flannery '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]	Frederick Debiase '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cole Degner '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-6, 9-12] Neil Bunce '21 [7-8]	Neil Bunce '21 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12] Andrew Todesco '22 [3-4, 7-10]
Lake Travis High School	Cavaliers	James Brock '24 [1-12]	Vivian Heitkoetter '23 [1-4, 9-12] Zachary Ronhaar '23 [5-8]
Lutheran South Academy	Varsity	Stephen Momeier '23 [1-12]	Noah Roberts '23 [1-2, 5-12] Reina Li '23 [3-4]
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	Joe Serpa '20 [1-4, 9-12] Miles Wolff '22 [5-8]	Trent Bilodeau '21 [1-6, 9-12] Joe Serpa '20 [7-8]
Portland High School	Bulldogs	Eva Ermlich '22 [1-6, 11-12] Gavin Sanborn '21 [7-10]	Jondall Norris '20 [1-6, 11-12]
St. Michael Catholic High School	Cardinals	Nate Hartwell '24 [1-12]	Ava Cocke '23 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12] Sullivan Stankoski '23 [3-4, 9-10] Robert Montgomery '22 [7-8]
St. Patrick Catholic High School	Fighting Irish	James Edwards '21	Mary Ellen Edwards '23
Ursuline Academy	Lions	Emily Threeton '22 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12] Kennedy Cooper '20 [3-4, 9-10]	Isabella Webster '22 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Karen Stiegler '21 [3-4, 9-10] Kennedy Cooper '20 [5-6]
West Lake High School (TX)	Chaparrals	Eric Jayawant '23	Annie Stockli '23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2019 Allstate Sugar Bowl Great Oaks Regatta GREEN

Division A

From the notes