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Rock the New Year 2019

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 7 7
2 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 24 24
3 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 27 27
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 32 32
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 32 32
6 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 36 36
7 Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 1 48 48
8 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 55 55
9 Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 2 57 57
10 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 71 71
11 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 78 78
12 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 80 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 Claire Housey '21 [1-7]
Graham Kalom '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Ellis Blake '20 [3-4]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 5 6 4 2 2 2 3 24 Joshua Grumme '20 [1-7]
Ashley Hilton '24 [1-6]
Ellis Blake '20 [7]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 2 2 5 4 3 9 2 27 William Diaz '20 [1-7]
Robert Cabell '24 [1-4, 7]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [5-6]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 3 3 6 8 5 3 4 32 Joel Grumme '21 [1-7]
Hutch Beaugh '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [3-4]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 4 7 2 5 4 5 5 32 Emily Threeton '22
Emily Williams '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 7 4 3 3 6 4 9 36 Frederick Cabell '19 [1-7]
Hanna Dawley '19 [1-5, 7]
Robert Cabell '24 [6]
Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 1 9 5 7 7 7 7 6 48 Clayton Blake '19
Connor Casso '19
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 6 8 8 12 8 6 7 55 Wallace St. Paul '21
Jack Winstead '20
Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 2 8 9 9 6 9 8 8 57 Brad Corcoran '20
Christopher Macdowell '19
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 10 10 10 9 11 10 11 71 Isabella Webster '22 [1-7]
Sibria Adams '23 [1-3, 7]
Victoria Vandenweghe '23 [4-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 11 11 11 11 12 12 10 78 Isabella White '22 [1-7]
Caitlyn Hall '22 [1-4, 7]
Grayson Eppling '23 [5-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 12 12 12 10 10 11 DNF 80 Marianne Kimble '23 [1-2, 7]
Meghan Keen '22 [3-6]
Christina Basara '22 [1-2, 7]
Kayla Chevis '23 [3-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Brother MartinBrother Martin Crusaders 17220722072207220722072207220
Brother MartinBrother Martin Crusaders 27221722172217221722172217221
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 18719871987198719871987198719
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 26666666
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 334343434343434
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 48717871787178717871787178717
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 58718871887188718871887188718
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 61111111
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 12222222
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 25555555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 36666666
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 41111111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 1 Clayton Blake '19 Connor Casso '19
Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 2 Brad Corcoran '20 Christopher Macdowell '19
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 William Diaz '20 [1-7] Robert Cabell '24 [1-4, 7]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [5-6]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Claire Housey '21 [1-7] Graham Kalom '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Ellis Blake '20 [3-4]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 Frederick Cabell '19 [1-7] Hanna Dawley '19 [1-5, 7]
Robert Cabell '24 [6]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 Wallace St. Paul '21 Jack Winstead '20
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 Joel Grumme '21 [1-7] Hutch Beaugh '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [3-4]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 Joshua Grumme '20 [1-7] Ashley Hilton '24 [1-6]
Ellis Blake '20 [7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 Marianne Kimble '23 [1-2, 7]
Meghan Keen '22 [3-6]		 Christina Basara '22 [1-2, 7]
Kayla Chevis '23 [3-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 Emily Threeton '22 Emily Williams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 Isabella Webster '22 [1-7] Sibria Adams '23 [1-3, 7]
Victoria Vandenweghe '23 [4-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 Isabella White '22 [1-7] Caitlyn Hall '22 [1-4, 7]
Grayson Eppling '23 [5-6]

Conditions — 01/12/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1017.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.4 kn
avg  ·  max 15.7 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From S (173°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine2.8 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1017.0 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.29
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →