Northshore Cup

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 16 16
2 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 19 19
3 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 31 31
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 32 32
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 34 34
6 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 37 37
7 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 41 41
8 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 45 45
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 2 1 1 1 1 1 OCS 16 Katie Gibbons '23
Emory Friend '22
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 3 3 3 4 2 3 1 19 William Diaz '20
Robert Cabell '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 1 5 2 5 7 2 OCS 31 Joshua Grumme '20
Ashley Hilton '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 7 2 4 6 3 5 5 32 Wallace St. Paul '21 [1-7]
Nick Compretta '24 [1-2, 5-7]
Ellis Blake '20 [3-4]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 8 8 5 2 5 4 2 34 Emily Threeton '22
Emily Williams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 5 4 8 7 4 6 3 37 Kennedy Cooper '20 [1-7]
Corinne Martin '20 [1-2, 4, 6-7]
Christina Basara '22 [3, 5]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 6 7 7 3 6 8 4 41 Joel Grumme '21
Hutch Beaugh '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 4 6 6 8 8 7 6 45 Frederick Cabell '19
Ruston Breisacher '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Mount Carmel AcademyMount Carmel Academy CUBS7221722172217221722172217221
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 134343434343434
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2130130130130130130130
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 38717871787178717871787178717
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 48718871887188718871887188718
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 58719871987198719871987198719
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 14444444
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 25555555
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS Katie Gibbons '23 Emory Friend '22
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 Frederick Cabell '19 Ruston Breisacher '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Wallace St. Paul '21 [1-7] Nick Compretta '24 [1-2, 5-7]
Ellis Blake '20 [3-4]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 Joshua Grumme '20 Ashley Hilton '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 Joel Grumme '21 Hutch Beaugh '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 William Diaz '20 Robert Cabell '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 Kennedy Cooper '20 [1-7] Corinne Martin '20 [1-2, 4, 6-7]
Christina Basara '22 [3, 5]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 Emily Threeton '22 Emily Williams '23

Conditions — 03/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From ESE (121°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus/Ursuline Academy: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus/Ursuline Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St. Stanislaus/Ursuline Academy: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →