| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 1–2 |
| 4 |  |
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,332 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 3 of 3 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.046 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 1 | 6.81 school +0.11, home +0.11 | Zane Rogers / Philip Adams Dutch Byerly / Drake Tierney 1.78 1–0 Asher Zittrer / Katie Mcgagh 2.15 1–0 Asher Zittrer / Tyler Kemberling 2.15 1–0 Dutch Byerly / Matthew Morrell 1.79 1–0 | 96% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 2 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 2 | 3.51 school −0.05 | Michael Burns / Joshua Grumme 1.94 Thomas Duffy / Joel Grumme 0.73 0–1 Charles Breath / Frederick Cabell 1.24 0–1 William Diaz / Frederick Cabell 0.65 1–0 Thomas Duffy / Jack Winstead 0.62 1–0 | 52% | 1–1 (50%) | −0.1 |
| 3 | Ursuline Academy Lions | 3 | -1.18 school −0.12 | Delaney Ligori / Cassidy O'Brien -0.31 0–1 Tylar Warren / Elsie Leblanc -0.24 0–1 Elizabeth Squires / Kennedy Cooper 0–1 Delaney Ligori / Elsie Leblanc -0.26 0–1 Tylar Warren / Corinne Martin -0.17 0–1 Riley Reech / Kennedy Cooper -0.41 0–1 | 2% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 6.81 | 9.81 | 2–0 | 1.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 91% |
| 2 | St. Stanislaus | 3.51 | 2.93 | 1–1 | 1.1 | −0.59 | 0.0 | 96% |
| 3 | Ursuline Academy | -1.18 | -4.18 | 0–2 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Clear Falls High School | Ursuline Academy | 100% | |
| 1 | 4 | Clear Falls High School | St. Stanislaus | 91% | |
| 1 | 5 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 96% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 2 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 3 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 4 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Asher Zittrer '19 Dutch Byerly '20 Zane Rogers '20 |
Katie Mcgagh '21 Tyler Kemberling '20 Drake Tierney '18 Matthew Morrell '20 Philip Adams '18 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Charles Breath '18 Michael Burns '21 Thomas Duffy '21 William Diaz '20 |
Frederick Cabell '19 Hanna Dawley '19 Joshua Grumme '20 Joel Grumme '21 Jack Winstead '20 |
|
Ursuline Academy | Lions | Delaney Ligori '18 Elizabeth Squires '18 Riley Reech '20 Tylar Warren '18 |
Cassidy O'Brien '21 Elsie Leblanc '20 Kennedy Cooper '20 Corinne Martin '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
