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Lawrence A. White Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 52 45 97
2 Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 45 74 119
3 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 67 63 130
4 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 47 99 146
5 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 89 66 155
6 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 109 74 183
7 Milton Academy Milton Academy Mustangs 105 116 221
8 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 112 109 221
9 Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Varsity 117 137 254
10 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 192 76 268
11 Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 135 142 277
12 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 123 155 278
13 Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 128 154 282
14 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 125 182 307
15 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 208 101 309
16 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 159 166 325
17 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 157 178 335
18 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 141 201 342
19 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 199 191 390
20 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 211 195 406
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 13 3 3 3 1 4 3 4 5 4 1 1 45 Mia Nicolosi '21
Victoria Flatley '20
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 4 1 1 6 2 1 2 4 1 12 10 47 Zane Rogers '20
Dutch Byerly '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 18 2 2 2 2 3 9 1 1 3 2 7 52 Luke Arnone '19
Blake Epstein '19
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2 16 4 5 11 8 2 3 2 9 3 2 67 Julia Johansson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Lachlain Mc Granahan '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Bernat Miro '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Hannah Bast '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Adam Kaplan '21 [9-10]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 10 10 5 4 12 5 5 5 8 10 9 6 89 Colleen O'Brien '20
Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Milton Academy Milton Academy Mustangs 5 13 18 10 7 10 7 14 3 7 7 4 105 Hunter Zonnenberg '20 [1-10]
Jamie Fox '21 [11-12]
Sam Barrett '21 [1-10]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 12 1 11 15 17 6 11 13 6 5 4 8 109 Connor Boland '21 [1-12]
Caroline Dubois-Weber '19 [1-10]
Daniel Neville '21 [11-12]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 9 8 10 7 3 17 20 6 10 8 11 3 112 Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-12]
Bridget Green '21 [1-10]
Joe Mrazek '20 [11-12]
Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Varsity 7 17 12 13 4 14 6 7 12 2 18 5 117 Taylor Hasson '19
Lucy Klempen '20
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 1 11 6 9 13 9 14 12 7 16 6 19 123 Brendan Mittleider '19
Alex Mazelsky '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 16 12 14 6 5 7 4 9 17 14 8 13 125 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 4 5 13 8 16 1 17 19 14 17 5 9 128 Charles Kreuzkamp '20 [1-6, 11-12]
Josh Dillon '21 [7-10]
Drew Dillon '19 [1-10]
Kaleigh Morgan '19 [11-12]
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 6 7 15 14 10 11 8 18 9 11 15 11 135 Alexander Runci '19 [1-12]
Maddy Kerr '19 [1-10]
Greta Shuster '21 [11-12]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 11 9 9 19 8 15 12 11 13 12 10 12 141 Zach Higham '19 [1-12]
Paige Zelenak '19 [1-4, 11-12]
Garrett Johnston '22 [5-10]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 14 19 16 11 9 12 15 8 19 6 14 14 157 Michael Pinto '19 [1-10]
Patrick York '20 [11-12]
Patrick York '20 [1-2, 7-8]
Chase Davis '20 [3-4, 9-12]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [5-6]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 8 6 8 16 15 13 18 10 18 18 13 16 159 Ted Lutton '20
Sammy Stoeber '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 19 15 7 18 14 19 10 20 16 15 19 20 192 Ryan Mullins '19 [1-6]
Quinn Harrington '19 [7-12]
Walter Mehl '21 [1-6]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 15 14 17 17 18 16 19 15 DSQ 13 16 18 199 Caroline Williams '19
Corinne Lee '19
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 17 18 19 20 19 20 16 17 11 19 17 15 208 Hal Clews '19 [1-6, 11-12]
Gavin Sanborn '21 [7-10]
Lucy Kilbreth '20 [1-6, 11-12]
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 20 20 20 12 20 18 13 16 15 20 20 17 211 Sam Balanevsky '22
Gavin Sheehan '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 2 2 4 1 3 1 1 2 5 13 10 45 Cameron Giblin '19 [1-10]
Brooke Schmelz '21 [11-12]
Will Beyer '20 [1-10]
John Cocozza '20 [11-12]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3 DNF 4 2 5 2 9 5 4 2 2 4 63 Javier Garcon '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Liam O'Keefe '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Claire Holzman '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 6 9 1 6 11 4 2 9 7 3 3 5 66 Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-12]
Danny Raphael '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Amelia Buch '20 [5-6]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 7 1 6 11 2 6 7 2 6 10 10 6 74 Libby Redmond '20 [1-12]
Kenna Reed '20 [1-10]
Isa Duplessis '20 [11-12]
Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 10 3 5 3 4 14 11 4 1 16 1 2 74 Caroline Sibilly '22 [1-12]
Gillian Perrell '20 [1-6, 11-12]
Savannah Young '21 [7-10]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 5 12 3 1 10 8 10 3 8 9 6 1 76 Ryan Ehnot '22
Joseph David '20
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 8 10 10 10 16 12 6 8 3 4 9 3 99 Noah Zittrer '21 [1-4, 7-12]
Lance Covington '20 [5-6]
Katie Mcgagh '21 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12]
Matthew Morrell '20 [3-4, 7-10]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 8 12 14 8 1 17 10 11 6 5 7 101 Eva Ermlich '22
Alice Thompson '21
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 11 13 16 5 12 5 3 7 5 17 7 8 109 Tom Green '19 [1-10]
Bridget Green '21 [11-12]
Joe Mrazek '20 [1-10]
Nate Ertle '20 [11-12]
Milton Academy Milton Academy Mustangs 9 5 11 7 3 10 5 11 10 7 20 18 116 Jamie Fox '21 [1-10]
Julia O'Connor '20 [11-12]
Julia O'Connor '20 [1-10]
Abigail Borggaard '20 [11-12]
Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Varsity 19 6 14 12 13 9 4 12 13 12 14 9 137 Rider Odom '19 [1-12]
Carson Oakley '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Elyssa Franklin '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 16 4 8 15 14 16 12 6 16 11 12 12 142 Aili Moffet '19 [1-10]
Henry Lee '20 [11-12]
Olivia Rocchio-Giordano '21 [1-10]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 13 7 7 17 9 11 14 18 19 20 8 11 154 Joseph Wicker '20 [1-4, 11-12]
Olin Guck '22 [5-10]
Olin Guck '22 [1-4]
Joseph Wicker '20 [5-6]
Peter Birch '22 [7-8]
Oskar Schnippering '19 [9-10]
Drew Dillon '19 [11-12]
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 20 11 9 9 7 13 8 DSQ 20 13 11 13 155 Sam Rooks '22 [1-12]
Catherine Carpenter '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Emma Cole '21 [3-4, 7-8]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 12 18 20 16 15 15 20 DNF 9 1 4 15 166 Dylan Hardt '20 [1-8]
Garrett Cook '20 [9-12]
Sarah Trunsky '21 [1-8]
Alex Adams '20 [9-12]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 17 14 19 18 6 7 16 14 14 18 18 17 178 Zachary York '20 [1-10]
Chris Medolla '20 [11-12]
Mason Medolla '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Chris Medolla '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [11-12]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 4 19 18 8 19 18 15 13 17 15 17 19 182 Luke Barlet '20 [1-2, 5-12]
Joseph Paccione '21 [3-4]
Gabriel Anama '21 [1-2, 5-12]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 18 16 13 13 20 17 19 15 12 19 15 14 191 Griffen Horne '19 [1-6, 9-12]
Katie Lojko '19 [7-8]
Noah Handfeild '20 [1-10]
Elizabeth Linsdell '20 [11-12]
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 15 15 15 20 17 20 13 16 15 14 19 16 195 Rory Mcclenehan '20
Anderson Osinski '22
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 14 17 17 19 18 19 18 17 18 8 16 20 201 Leo Krajewski '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Alexa Carles '19 [5-6]
Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Parks '21 [3-4, 11-12]
Alexa Carles '19 [7-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Antilles SchoolAntilles School Hurricanes112233445566
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles22112020191918181717
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders334455667788
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts4433221120201919
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights55667788991010
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins665544332211
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons778899101011111212
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen887766554433
Good Hope County Day SchoolGood Hope County Day School Varsity9910101111121213131414
Milton AcademyMilton Academy Mustangs10109988776655
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers111112121313141415151616
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian121211111010998877
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs131314141515161617171818
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers1414131312121111101099
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders151516161717181819192020
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs161615151414131312121111
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1919202011223344
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams17171818191920201122
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits181817171616151514141313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians202019191818171716161515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Antilles SchoolAntilles School Hurricanes112233445566
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles22112020191918181717
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders334455667788
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts4433221120201919
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights55667788991010
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins665544332211
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons778899101011111212
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen887766554433
Good Hope County Day SchoolGood Hope County Day School Varsity9910101111121213131414
Milton AcademyMilton Academy Mustangs10109988776655
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers111112121313141415151616
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian121211111010998877
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs131314141515161617171818
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers1414131312121111101099
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders151516161717181819192020
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs161615151414131312121111
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1919202011223344
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams17171818191920201122
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits181817171616151514141313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians202019191818171716161515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Antilles School Antilles School Mia Nicolosi '21 Victoria Flatley '20
Hurricanes Caroline Sibilly '22 [1-12] Gillian Perrell '20 [1-6, 11-12]
Savannah Young '21 [7-10]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Charles Kreuzkamp '20 [1-6, 11-12]
Josh Dillon '21 [7-10]		 Drew Dillon '19 [1-10]
Kaleigh Morgan '19 [11-12]
Eagles Joseph Wicker '20 [1-4, 11-12]
Olin Guck '22 [5-10]		 Olin Guck '22 [1-4]
Joseph Wicker '20 [5-6]
Peter Birch '22 [7-8]
Oskar Schnippering '19 [9-10]
Drew Dillon '19 [11-12]
Canisius High School Canisius High School Sam Balanevsky '22 Gavin Sheehan '20
Crusaders Rory Mcclenehan '20 Anderson Osinski '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Mullins '19 [1-6]
Quinn Harrington '19 [7-12]		 Walter Mehl '21 [1-6]
Colts Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Zane Rogers '20 Dutch Byerly '20
Knights Noah Zittrer '21 [1-4, 7-12]
Lance Covington '20 [5-6]		 Katie Mcgagh '21 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12]
Matthew Morrell '20 [3-4, 7-10]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Griffins Luke Barlet '20 [1-2, 5-12]
Joseph Paccione '21 [3-4]		 Gabriel Anama '21 [1-2, 5-12]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Caroline Williams '19 Corinne Lee '19
Dragons Griffen Horne '19 [1-6, 9-12]
Katie Lojko '19 [7-8]		 Noah Handfeild '20 [1-10]
Elizabeth Linsdell '20 [11-12]
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Brendan Mittleider '19 Alex Mazelsky '20
Yachtsmen Sam Rooks '22 [1-12] Catherine Carpenter '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Emma Cole '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Good Hope County Day School Good Hope County Day School Taylor Hasson '19 Lucy Klempen '20
Varsity Rider Odom '19 [1-12] Carson Oakley '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Elyssa Franklin '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Milton Academy Milton Academy Hunter Zonnenberg '20 [1-10]
Jamie Fox '21 [11-12]		 Sam Barrett '21 [1-10]
Mustangs Jamie Fox '21 [1-10]
Julia O'Connor '20 [11-12]		 Julia O'Connor '20 [1-10]
Abigail Borggaard '20 [11-12]
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Alexander Runci '19 [1-12] Maddy Kerr '19 [1-10]
Greta Shuster '21 [11-12]
Quakers Aili Moffet '19 [1-10]
Henry Lee '20 [11-12]		 Olivia Rocchio-Giordano '21 [1-10]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Ted Lutton '20 Sammy Stoeber '20
Trevian Dylan Hardt '20 [1-8]
Garrett Cook '20 [9-12]		 Sarah Trunsky '21 [1-8]
Alex Adams '20 [9-12]
Portland High School Portland High School Hal Clews '19 [1-6, 11-12]
Gavin Sanborn '21 [7-10]		 Lucy Kilbreth '20 [1-6, 11-12]
Bulldogs Eva Ermlich '22 Alice Thompson '21
Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Panthers Cameron Giblin '19 [1-10]
Brooke Schmelz '21 [11-12]		 Will Beyer '20 [1-10]
John Cocozza '20 [11-12]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Julia Johansson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Lachlain Mc Granahan '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Bernat Miro '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Hannah Bast '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Adam Kaplan '21 [9-10]
Raiders Javier Garcon '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Liam O'Keefe '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Claire Holzman '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Bulldogs Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-12] Danny Raphael '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Amelia Buch '20 [5-6]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-12] Bridget Green '21 [1-10]
Joe Mrazek '20 [11-12]
Rams Tom Green '19 [1-10]
Bridget Green '21 [11-12]		 Joe Mrazek '20 [1-10]
Nate Ertle '20 [11-12]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Michael Pinto '19 [1-10]
Patrick York '20 [11-12]		 Patrick York '20 [1-2, 7-8]
Chase Davis '20 [3-4, 9-12]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [5-6]
Hermits Zachary York '20 [1-10]
Chris Medolla '20 [11-12]		 Mason Medolla '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Chris Medolla '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [11-12]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Connor Boland '21 [1-12] Caroline Dubois-Weber '19 [1-10]
Daniel Neville '21 [11-12]
Raiders Libby Redmond '20 [1-12] Kenna Reed '20 [1-10]
Isa Duplessis '20 [11-12]
Toms River South Toms River South Zach Higham '19 [1-12] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-4, 11-12]
Garrett Johnston '22 [5-10]
Indians Leo Krajewski '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Alexa Carles '19 [5-6]		 Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Parks '21 [3-4, 11-12]
Alexa Carles '19 [7-10]

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine3.0 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1011.1 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Coast Guard Academy: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.16
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Coast Guard Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →