New Trier HS '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 (fleet 2.01) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 14–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 12–0 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Central Baker pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.17 | 4.17 | 12–0 | 8.1 | ≥+3.00 | 6.7 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Silver sail-off | Skipper | TR | 2 | 100% | — |
| Christchurch Spring Intersectional Kick Off | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.7 | 0.92 |
| Central Baker pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.6 | -1.15 |
| Chicago YC Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.9 | 2.22 |
| 2019 Rose Bowl Regatta - Silver | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.1 | 1.89 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tier 3 Columbia JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.0 | 1.79 |
| Z Trophy March 17 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 1.65 |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 0.28 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2017 | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 0.71 |
| MISSA Keelboat Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 3.8 | — |
| Kick Off Classic | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 1.03 |
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 1.20 |
| Fall Scramble | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.0 | 0.92 |
| Banks Blackwell Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.0 | 0.72 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MYST May Madness | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.9 | -0.27 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Banks Blackwell | Skipper | B | 6 | 21.3 | -0.68 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Dylan Hardt |  Embry-Riddle University |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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