2019 Rose Bowl Regatta - Silver

HostUSC - US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA
Date01/05/2019
TypePromotional
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	24	22	46
2	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	67	24	91
3	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	55	37	92
4	New Trier HS	Trevian	67	36	103
5	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 1	43	61	104
6	The Urban School	Blues	65	50	115
7	Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	68	52	120
8	Capital High School	Cougars	42	89	131
9	Acalanes High School	Dons	98	42	140
10	South Torrance High School	Spartans	28	129	157
11	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	80	83	163
12	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 2	103	62	165
13	College Park High School	Falcons	84	83	167
14	Marin Academy	Wildcats	87	82	169
15	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	87	87	174
16	Design Tech High School	d.tech	100	82	182
17	Archie Williams High School	Pirates	121	87	208
18	Coronado Islanders	Nado	91	125	216
19	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	109	118	227
20	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	116	136	252
21	Los Alamitos High School	Griffins	93	160	253
22	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	145	137	282

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	4	1	1	1	5	4	8	24	Marleigh Belsley '19 James Nappo '20
South Torrance High School	Spartans	5	7	3	5	2	5	1	28	Emma Tallman '21 Juliet Gerwin '23
Capital High School	Cougars	1	8	8	6	4	6	9	42	Annie Buelt '20 Ann Li '20
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 1	2	12	2	12	3	1	11	43	George Soliman '20 James Maxwell '22
Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	12	4	15	11	6	2	5	55	Dutch Dietrick '20 Sophia Burton '20
The Urban School	Blues	13	2	4	13	13	8	12	65	Eli Gordon '20 Dinah Luomanen '21
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	8	5	BKD	3	19	18	4	67	William Bayliss '20 [1-7] Sam Wu '22 [1-2, 5-7] Beckett Shinn '25 [3-4]
New Trier HS	Trevian	17	9	6	2	16	15	2	67	Noah Barton '19 Anna Mcbride '20
Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	DNF	17	10	4	8	3	3	68	Maximilian Rosenblad '19 Chase White '19
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	15	19	5	7	11	13	10	80	Sebastian Green '22 Jack Cady '21
College Park High School	Falcons	10	10	18	21	7	11	7	84	Zack Taylor '19 [1-7] Brooks Knuckles '23 [1-2] Chase Latson '19 [3-4] Jake Botting '21 [5-7]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	9	6	7	15	15	17	18	87	Fredrick Baldauf '20 Charlotte Navin '20
Marin Academy	Wildcats	19	13	13	9	10	7	16	87	Jack Mcdonnell '21 Rinchen Heffelfinger '22
Coronado Islanders	Nado	18	21	9	16	1	20	6	91	Charlie Clausen '19 Katelyn Roberts '20
Los Alamitos High School	Griffins	7	20	17	17	9	9	14	93	Summer Drake '22 William Mueller '22
Acalanes High School	Dons	3	18	12	14	20	14	17	98	Sophia Browne '20 Lola Rao '20
Design Tech High School	d.tech	11	14	11	8	14	DSQ	19	100	Michael Mcculloch '21 Teddy Knobel '21
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 2	6	22	16	10	18	16	15	103	Kyle Vaughn '19 [1-7] Sydney Baker '22 [1-2, 5-7] Aidan O'Donnell '22 [3-4]
Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	16	3	19	20	21	10	20	109	Kyle Gallagher '19 [1-7] Grace Lawson '19 [1-6] Alexander Woodmansee '20 [7]
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	21	15	21	22	12	12	13	116	Lucien Canvinet '20 Olivia Chang '18
Archie Williams High School	Pirates	14	11	20	19	17	19	21	121	Elsa Simenstad '22 [1-2, 5-6] Cole Williams '20 [3-4, 7] Grace Glass '19 [1-2, 5-6] Ian Mendius '22 [3-4, 7]
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	20	16	22	18	DNS	DNF	DNF	145	Jackson Hoover '20 Abaym Fritz '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	3	3	3	5	2	2	4	22	Nikolas Chambers '19 Brook Wood '21
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	5	9	4	1	1	3	1	24	Evelyn Plam '19 [1-7] Carolyne Ikeda '19 [1-2, 5-7] Sebastian Rodriguez '21 [3-4]
New Trier HS	Trevian	6	1	1	7	3	4	14	36	Dylan Hardt '20 Sarah Trunsky '21
Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	9	6	2	2	6	10	2	37	Gretchen Hohenstein '20 [1-7] Teresa Bui '21 [1-2] Sophia Mulvania '22 [3, 5-7] Samuel Bigelow '19 [4]
Acalanes High School	Dons	2	2	16	10	4	1	7	42	Ben Foox '23 [1-2, 5-6] Chase Englehart '22 [3-4, 7] Lia Reilly '21 [1-2, 5-6]
The Urban School	Blues	15	5	10	4	7	6	3	50	J.P. Murphy '21 [1-7] Anna Krylova '20 [1-2, 5-7] Tristan Bellevin '21 [3-4]
Ernest J. McBride	Wolfpack	7	8	5	11	5	7	9	52	Tristan Feves '22 Kayla Maguire '21
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 1	1	10	7	9	10	9	15	61	Chris Salas '22 Ian Thompsen '22
Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings 2	4	17	12	3	9	12	5	62	Emily Collins '19 Kyla Mclay '21
Marin Academy	Wildcats	11	13	13	17	8	8	12	82	Beck Lorsch '21 Allegra O'Brien '22
Design Tech High School	d.tech	12	4	11	15	17	5	18	82	Jemma Schroder '20 Zoe Flemate '21
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	8	7	15	14	15	16	8	83	Ben Covington '19 [1-7] Miles Raneri '21 [1-2, 5-6] Dennis O'Donnell '20 [3-4, 7]
College Park High School	Falcons	10	11	19	6	12	15	10	83	Nate Holden '21 [1-7] Josh Botting '23 [1-5] Mia Yang '21 [6-7]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	14	19	8	16	13	11	6	87	Alex Pick '19 Jonah Benningfield '20
Archie Williams High School	Pirates	17	15	6	13	11	14	11	87	Ian Mendius '22 Olivia Nardel '21
Capital High School	Cougars	18	12	9	8	BKD	BKD	16	89	Joy Brennan '20 Shakiah Grods '20
Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	19	16	14	19	19	18	13	118	Jacob Titcomb '21 [1-7] Michael Murphy '22 [1-2, 7] Alexander Woodmansee '20 [3-4] Claire Backer '21 [5-6]
Coronado Islanders	Nado	13	14	21	21	16	17	DNF	125	Sophia Shaeffer '21 Gideon Goodmanson '20
South Torrance High School	Spartans	16	20	17	20	18	19	19	129	James Sawyer '21
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	DNF	18	20	12	DNF	DNF	17	136	Caton Woll '20 Conor Martin '20
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	20	21	18	18	14	DNF	DNF	137	Matthew Sun '20 Sean Choo '23
Los Alamitos High School	Griffins	DNF	22	DNS	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	160	Jack Hanson '22 Nikolas Panagiotou '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Acalanes High School Dons	31	31	33	33	35	35	37
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	32	32	52	52	50	50	48
Capital High School Cougars	33	33	35	35	37	37	39
Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	34	34	32	32	52	52	50
College Park High School Falcons	35	35	37	37	39	39	41
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	36	36	34	34	32	32	52
Coronado Islanders Nado	37	37	39	39	41	41	43
Design Tech High School d.tech	38	38	36	36	34	34	32
Ernest J. McBride Wolfpack	39	39	41	41	43	43	45
Latin School of Chicago Romans	40	40	38	38	36	36	34
Los Alamitos High School Griffins	41	41	43	43	45	45	47
Marin Academy Wildcats	42	42	40	40	38	38	36
Mater Dei High School Monarchs	43	43	45	45	47	47	49
New Trier HS Trevian	44	44	42	42	40	40	38
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 1	45	45	47	47	49	49	51
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 2	46	46	44	44	42	42	40
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	47	47	49	49	51	51	31
Archie Williams High School Pirates	48	48	46	46	44	44	42
South Torrance High School Spartans	49	49	51	51	31	31	33
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	50	50	48	48	46	46	44
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	51	51	31	31	33	33	35
The Urban School Blues	52	52	50	50	48	48	46

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Acalanes High School Dons	32	32	34	34	36	36	38
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	31	31	51	51	49	49	47
Capital High School Cougars	34	34	36	36	38	38	40
Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	33	33	31	31	51	51	49
College Park High School Falcons	36	36	38	38	40	40	42
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	35	35	33	33	31	31	51
Coronado Islanders Nado	38	38	40	40	42	42	44
Design Tech High School d.tech	37	37	35	35	33	33	31
Ernest J. McBride Wolfpack	40	40	42	42	44	44	46
Latin School of Chicago Romans	39	39	37	37	35	35	33
Los Alamitos High School Griffins	42	42	44	44	46	46	48
Marin Academy Wildcats	41	41	39	39	37	37	35
Mater Dei High School Monarchs	44	44	46	46	48	48	50
New Trier HS Trevian	43	43	41	41	39	39	37
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 1	46	46	48	48	50	50	52
Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 2	45	45	43	43	41	41	39
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	48	48	50	50	52	52	32
Archie Williams High School Pirates	47	47	45	45	43	43	41
South Torrance High School Spartans	50	50	52	52	32	32	34
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	49	49	47	47	45	45	43
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	52	52	32	32	34	34	36
The Urban School Blues	51	51	49	49	47	47	45

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Acalanes High School	Sophia Browne '20	Lola Rao '20
Dons	Ben Foox '23 [1-2, 5-6] Chase Englehart '22 [3-4, 7]	Lia Reilly '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Archie Williams High School	Elsa Simenstad '22 [1-2, 5-6] Cole Williams '20 [3-4, 7]	Grace Glass '19 [1-2, 5-6] Ian Mendius '22 [3-4, 7]
Pirates	Ian Mendius '22	Olivia Nardel '21
Berkeley High School	Lucien Canvinet '20	Olivia Chang '18
Yellowjackets	Caton Woll '20	Conor Martin '20
Capital High School	Annie Buelt '20	Ann Li '20
Cougars	Joy Brennan '20	Shakiah Grods '20
Cathedral Catholic High School	Kyle Gallagher '19 [1-7]	Grace Lawson '19 [1-6] Alexander Woodmansee '20 [7]
Dons	Jacob Titcomb '21 [1-7]	Michael Murphy '22 [1-2, 7] Alexander Woodmansee '20 [3-4] Claire Backer '21 [5-6]
College Park High School	Zack Taylor '19 [1-7]	Brooks Knuckles '23 [1-2] Chase Latson '19 [3-4] Jake Botting '21 [5-7]
Falcons	Nate Holden '21 [1-7]	Josh Botting '23 [1-5] Mia Yang '21 [6-7]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Sebastian Green '22	Jack Cady '21
Cubs	Ben Covington '19 [1-7]	Miles Raneri '21 [1-2, 5-6] Dennis O'Donnell '20 [3-4, 7]
Coronado Islanders	Charlie Clausen '19	Katelyn Roberts '20
Nado	Sophia Shaeffer '21	Gideon Goodmanson '20
Design Tech High School	Michael Mcculloch '21	Teddy Knobel '21
d.tech	Jemma Schroder '20	Zoe Flemate '21
Ernest J. McBride	Maximilian Rosenblad '19	Chase White '19
Wolfpack	Tristan Feves '22	Kayla Maguire '21
Latin School of Chicago	Marleigh Belsley '19	James Nappo '20
Romans	Nikolas Chambers '19	Brook Wood '21
Los Alamitos High School	Summer Drake '22	William Mueller '22
Griffins	Jack Hanson '22	Nikolas Panagiotou '22
Marin Academy	Jack Mcdonnell '21	Rinchen Heffelfinger '22
Wildcats	Beck Lorsch '21	Allegra O'Brien '22
Mater Dei High School	Dutch Dietrick '20	Sophia Burton '20
Monarchs	Gretchen Hohenstein '20 [1-7]	Teresa Bui '21 [1-2] Sophia Mulvania '22 [3, 5-7] Samuel Bigelow '19 [4]
New Trier HS	Noah Barton '19	Anna Mcbride '20
Trevian	Dylan Hardt '20	Sarah Trunsky '21
Palos Verdes High School	George Soliman '20	James Maxwell '22
Sea Kings 1	Chris Salas '22	Ian Thompsen '22
Palos Verdes High School	Kyle Vaughn '19 [1-7]	Sydney Baker '22 [1-2, 5-7] Aidan O'Donnell '22 [3-4]
Sea Kings 2	Emily Collins '19	Kyla Mclay '21
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Jackson Hoover '20	Abaym Fritz '20
Panthers	Matthew Sun '20	Sean Choo '23
South Torrance High School	Emma Tallman '21	Juliet Gerwin '23
Spartans	James Sawyer '21
St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	William Bayliss '20 [1-7]	Sam Wu '22 [1-2, 5-7] Beckett Shinn '25 [3-4]
Wildcats	Evelyn Plam '19 [1-7]	Carolyne Ikeda '19 [1-2, 5-7] Sebastian Rodriguez '21 [3-4]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Fredrick Baldauf '20	Charlotte Navin '20
Breakers	Alex Pick '19	Jonah Benningfield '20
The Urban School	Eli Gordon '20	Dinah Luomanen '21
Blues	J.P. Murphy '21 [1-7]	Anna Krylova '20 [1-2, 5-7] Tristan Bellevin '21 [3-4]

Conditions — 01/05/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.4 kn

avg · max 9.1 kn

Gusts to 16.1 kn

From SE (137°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1014.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at USC - US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at USC - US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at USC - US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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