Capital High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.82 (fleet 1.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–21 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 10–14 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 11–6 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 24–21 against 23.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-27 | 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.17 | 2.38 | 4–4 | 2.5 | +1.21 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2019-04-06 | Portland Team Race | skipper | 1.12 | -1.00 | 3–5 | 5.7 | −2.11 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.02 | 0.43 | 3–5 | 3.8 | −0.60 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.12 | 1.18 | 5–5 | 4.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-03-24 | NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | skipper | 1.01 | 3.90 | 6–1 | 3.7 | +2.89 | 3.5 | 4% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race - JV | skipper | 0.47 | 1.46 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.99 | 0.3 | 50% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Joy Brennan |  Olympia High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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