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Olympia Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 12 11 23
2 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 1 15 15 30
3 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 17 14 31
4 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 21 16 37
5 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 27 14 41
6 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 31 14 45
7 Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 16 30 46
8 Charles Wright High School Charles Wright High School Charles Wright 6 45 51
9 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2 14 41 55
10 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 32 23 55
11 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 42 25 67
12 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 43 27 70
13 Rams Rams Rams 40 32 72
14 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 36 41 77
15 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 43 37 80
16 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 34 48 82
17 Raiders Raiders Raiders 41 44 85
18 Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA 45 42 87
19 Trojans Trojans Trojans 55 52 107
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Charles Wright High School Charles Wright High School Charles Wright 1 1 4 6 Alyosha Strum-Palerm '18
Nicholas Lee '20
Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 2 3 7 12
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2 6 5 3 14 Dominick Wareham '19
Matia Schwartz '17
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 1 10 4 1 15 Axel Greening '17
Millie Kau '19
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 5 2 9 16 Annie Buelt '20
Caroline Hurley '20
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 4 7 6 17 Max Miller '18
Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '17
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 9 10 2 21 Olivia Mitchell '18
Jack Sobeck '19
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 3 6 18 27 Ryan Squires '18
Ripley Morris '19
Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 8 18 5 31
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 13 9 10 32 Harrison Saliba '17
Clayton Marsh '20
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 7 14 13 34 Ciara Mcclanahan '20
Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 14 8 14 36
Rams Rams Rams 16 16 8 40
Raiders Raiders Raiders 18 11 12 41
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 11 12 19 42 Cedric Keneipp '19
Peyton Nienaber '18
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 15 13 15 43 Quinn Ring '18 [1-3]
Camden Lee '19 [1-2]
Daniel Rentz '18 [3]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 17 15 11 43 Hannah Roy '17
Jack Knowles '20
Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA 12 17 16 45
Trojans Trojans Trojans 19 19 17 55
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 1 4 6 11
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 2 5 7 14 Axel Stordahl '20
Jack Frazier '17
Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 5 6 3 14
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 8 1 5 14 Owen Timms '19
Evan Krug '19
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 1 11 3 1 15 Maggie Toombs '18
Sandy Rost '17
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 3 2 11 16 Elizabeth Rolfes '17
Sophie Lewis '18
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 6 7 10 23 Sophia Kasper '18
Max Doane '20
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 8 13 25 Lera Anders '18
Mallory Hood '18
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 9 10 8 27 Parker Hutchinson '20
Jack Chapman '19
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 17 11 2 30 Joy Brennan '20
Zachary Cowan '20
Rams Rams Rams 7 13 12 32
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 13 RAF 4 37 Andrija Katuric '16
Chai Spelchake '18
Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 14 12 15 41
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2 18 14 9 41 Levi Moss '19
Tara Dobos '18
Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA 15 9 18 42
Raiders Raiders Raiders 12 15 17 44
Charles Wright High School Charles Wright High School Charles Wright 10 16 19 45 Jack Corddry '19
Hayden Flaskerud '20
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 16 18 14 48 Kevin Hicks '19
Trojans Trojans Trojans 19 17 16 52
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 1353537
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 2373738
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 33838
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders13
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars131351
Charles Wright High SchoolCharles Wright High School Charles Wright515141
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides4141
RamsRams Rams15
Cardinals 1Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1151516
Cardinals 2Cardinals 2 Cardinals 21616
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 230
TrojansTrojans Trojans12112135
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 1303029
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 22929
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners36
Unregistered-NWISAUnregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA3636121

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 11616
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars30
Charles Wright High SchoolCharles Wright High School Charles Wright303029
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides2929
RamsRams Rams36
Cardinals 1Cardinals 1 Cardinals 13636121
Cardinals 2Cardinals 2 Cardinals 212112135
Cardinals 3Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3353537
RaidersRaiders Raiders373738
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 13838
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 213
TrojansTrojans Trojans151516
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 1131351
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 2515141
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners4141
Unregistered-NWISAUnregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA15

Conditions — 10/22/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1012.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.0 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From E (81°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine6.3 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1012.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn · E 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Olympia Yacht Club: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Olympia Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Olympia Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →