Sehome High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.14 (fleet 1.84) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–5 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 8–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 8–5 against 7.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.45 | 1.84 | 8–5 | 7.3 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 44% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.2 | 0.26 |
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (GOLD) | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.4 | 0.71 |
| Oak Harbor Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.7 | 0.79 |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| ISLANDS CUP | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.4 | 2.71 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl 2018 - HS Silver | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 2.12 |
| PCISA Girls Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.3 | 0.81 |
| Olympia: Fall Ranking Championship, Gold | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 1.70 |
| NWISA North Regional | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| NWISA Keelboat Championship Keelboat | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | -0.40 |
| NWISA All-Women's Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.1 | 1.32 |
| Cascadia Cup - GOLD | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | 0.87 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SYC Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | -0.87 |
| SSP Combined - GOLD | Skipper | A | 8 | 16.9 | -1.19 |
| NWISA Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA Doublehanded Districts | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.1 | 1.32 |
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.9 | -0.43 |
| Island Cup Gold | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.7 | 0.34 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.3 | -0.09 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Bainbridge Team Race | Skipper | TR | 3 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl - Silver | Crew | A, B | 6 | 15.5 | — |
| Orcas Trick or Treat | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.3 | -0.69 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Lera Anders |  Tufts University |
'22 |
| ISSA | Lera Anders |  Bellingham High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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