| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners 1 | 7–1 |
| 3 |  |
Bellingham High School | Raiders | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 4–4 |
| 5 | |
Sehome High School | Mariners 2 | 3–5 |
| 6 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Nathan Hale High School | Raiders | 3–5 |
| 8 |  |
Squalicum High School | Storm | 2–6 |
| 9 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,075 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 21 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.417 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 35% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orcas High School Vikings | 5.36 | 8.36 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 6 | Anacortes High School Seahawks | 0.33 | 1.61 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.28 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 4 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 1.49 | 2.45 | 3–3 | 2.2 | +0.96 | 0.4 | 39% |
| 2 | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | 4.39 | 4.69 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 7 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 1.36 | 1.18 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 5 | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | 1.82 | 1.10 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.71 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 9 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 1.87 | -0.30 | 1–5 | 2.6 | −2.17 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Toombs | Orcas High School | 1.88 | 4.88 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 56% |
| Dominick Wareham | Orcas High School | 2.00 | 5.00 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 56% |
| Ronan Rankin | Orcas High School | 1.42 | 4.42 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 56% |
| Christopher Warmuth | Anacortes High School | 0.93 | 2.22 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.28 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Annika Dunton | Anacortes High School | -0.82 | 0.46 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.28 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Jenny Danielson | Oak Harbor High School | 0.20 | 1.16 | 3–3 | 2.2 | +0.96 | 0.4 | 39% |
| Willa Weinsheimer | Oak Harbor High School | -0.28 | 0.53 | 2–3 | 1.4 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Emma Powell | Sehome High School | 1.32 | 1.62 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Anna Wohnoutka | Nathan Hale High School | 0.31 | 0.12 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Alejandro Ponce | Sehome High School | 0.49 | -0.22 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.71 | 0.2 | 86% |
| No Show | Roosevelt High School | 0.59 | -1.58 | 1–5 | 2.6 | −2.17 | 1.9 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | Anacortes High School Seahawks | 80% | |
| 1 | 3 | Orcas High School Vikings | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | 70% | |
| 1 | 6 | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 92% | |
| 1 | 8 | Orcas High School Vikings | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | 94% | |
| 1 | 10 | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 89% | |
| 1 | 11 | Orcas High School Vikings | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 96% | |
| 1 | 12 | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | Anacortes High School Seahawks | 76% | |
| 1 | 13 | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 92% | |
| 1 | 15 | Orcas High School Vikings | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 95% | |
| 1 | 16 | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 59% | |
| 1 | 18 | Orcas High School Vikings | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 96% | |
| 1 | 20 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 41% | upset |
| 1 | 22 | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | Anacortes High School Seahawks | 96% | |
| 1 | 23 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 51% | |
| 1 | 24 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | 51% | |
| 1 | 25 | Orcas High School Vikings | Anacortes High School Seahawks | 98% | |
| 1 | 27 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 40% | upset |
| 1 | 29 | Anacortes High School Seahawks | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 30% | upset |
| 1 | 32 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | 42% | upset |
| 1 | 33 | Anacortes High School Seahawks | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 23% | upset |
| 1 | 36 | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | 88% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Storm | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Storm | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Storm | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Storm | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Storm | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Storm | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Storm | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Storm | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
