Sehome High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.24 (fleet 2.00) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–16 (20%) as crew 1–3 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 2–12 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 1–3 |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 5–19 against 6.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-24 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.24 | 0.05 | 2–12 | 2.3 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2019-04-27 | 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | crew | 1.20 | 0.43 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −0.78 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2018-03-24 | Oak Harbor Team Race | skipper | 0.19 | -0.52 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.71 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| NWISA Doublehanded Champs | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.7 | 1.08 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Island Cup - GOLD | Crew | B | 5 | 8.8 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Kitsap Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 1.67 |
| ISSA Fleet Race Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Crew | A | 3 | 17.3 | — |
| Anacortes Silver Fleet | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.8 | 1.56 |
| 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | Crew | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (SILVER) | Crew | A | 10 | 7.4 | — |
| Oak Harbor Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Forrest Cook Regatta - Ranking Regatta #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.1 | -1.40 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Keller Morrison |  Brown University |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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