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Forrest Cook Regatta - Ranking Regatta #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 22 8 30
2 Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Eagles 24 16 40
3 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 49 28 77
4 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 33 47 80
5 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 34 47 81
6 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 44 40 84
7 Tarriers Tarriers Tarriers 48 41 89
8 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 52 44 96
9 Newport High School Newport High School Cubs 21 78 99
10 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 57 64 121
11 Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 71 63 134
12 Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 85 77 162
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Newport High School Newport High School Cubs 2 2 BKD 8 1 1 4 21 Ronan Krutzkowsky '18
Sara Tornelli '18
Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 1 6 5 2 2 3 3 22 Claire Siegel-Wilson '18
Megan Waller '20
Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Eagles 4 1 1 5 5 2 6 24 Erin Sutherland '18
Grace Schlemmer '18
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 5 4 2 6 6 5 5 33 Jordan Wood-Pina '18
Aiden Wright '21
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 3 10 4 1 8 7 1 34 Jack Knowles '20
Fischer Brunzell '21
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 7 3 8 4 7 6 9 44 Anna Sherry '19
Julia Sherry '19
Tarriers Tarriers Tarriers 9 9 7 10 3 8 2 48
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 8 8 3 3 9 11 7 49 Liam Patrick '18
Anna Morrow '18
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 11 5 9 11 4 4 8 52 Niko Twilla '18
Becca Sharpe '18
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 6 7 6 7 11 9 11 57 Alejandro Ponce '18
Ajax Robinson '21
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 10 12 10 9 10 10 10 71 Cole Sokolik '17
Madeline Roberts '21
Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 12 11 DNS DNS 12 12 12 85 Annelise Pardee '19
Ian Mcconkey '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 Ronan Waterson '18
Justin Zhou '21
Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Eagles 1 2 4 2 3 2 2 16 Pelle Bergstrom '19
Abby Bergemann '18
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 3 3 5 6 4 3 4 28 Christopher Warmuth '18
Satone Haratani '19
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 7 4 6 9 5 6 3 40 Cole Fox '18
Isabelle Loverich '19
Tarriers Tarriers Tarriers 5 6 3 4 8 9 6 41
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 8 9 2 3 2 7 DNS 44 Tyler Nolasco '19
Travis Bouck '20
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4 7 9 7 7 4 9 47 Jenny Danielson '20
Willa Weinsheimer '20
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 6 5 7 5 6 5 DNS 47 Lauren Wittkopf '18
Forrest Rehberger '20
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 11 10 10 10 9 8 5 63 Quentin Vazquez '21
Sophia Roberts '19
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 9 8 8 11 10 10 8 64 Keller Morrison '21
Max Case '20
Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 10 DNF 11 8 11 11 DNS 77 Morgan Chandler '20
Dylan Chandler '18
Newport High School Newport High School Cubs 12 11 12 12 12 12 7 78 John Lind '18
Madisen Kinner '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks1122334
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders2233445
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars3344556
TarriersTarriers Tarriers4455667
Hood River Valley High SchoolHood River Valley High School Eagles5566778
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Varsity6677889
Newport High SchoolNewport High School Cubs77889910
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish8899101011
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats991010111112
Oregon Episcopal SchoolOregon Episcopal School Aardvarks1010111112121
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners11111212112
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm121211223

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks77889910
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders8899101011
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars991010111112
TarriersTarriers Tarriers1010111112121
Hood River Valley High SchoolHood River Valley High School Eagles11111212112
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Varsity121211223
Newport High SchoolNewport High School Cubs1122334
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish2233445
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats3344556
Oregon Episcopal SchoolOregon Episcopal School Aardvarks4455667
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners5566778
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm6677889

Conditions — 04/07/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 999.3 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 15.5 kn
Gusts to 29.5 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure999.3 hPa Rain0.34 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn · SW 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hood River: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.44 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hood River by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Hood River: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →