Sehome High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.41 (fleet 0.67) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–4 (33%) as crew 3–7 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 2–4 | 3–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 5–11 against 6.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | crew | 1.34 | 0.71 | 3–7 | 4.0 | −0.64 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2018-03-24 | Oak Harbor Team Race | skipper | 0.49 | -0.22 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.71 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Champs Silver | Crew | A | 5 | 20.6 | -0.00 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - SILVER | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | -0.37 |
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (SILVER) | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.8 | 1.01 |
| Oak Harbor Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | 0.38 |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Forrest Cook Regatta - Ranking Regatta #3 | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.1 | -0.60 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia: Fall Ranking Championship, Silver | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | -0.75 |
| NWISA North Regional | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 0.32 |
| NWISA DJOD FJ Fleet | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 0.63 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Crew | B | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| Forrest Cook Regatta | Crew | A | 9 | 12.3 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA North Regionals | Crew | B | 4 | 14.8 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 25.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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