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Olympia: Fall Ranking Championship, Silver

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 12 18 30
2 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 21 24 45
3 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 33 13 46
4 Lions Lions Lions 25 26 51
5 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 28 43 71
6 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 33 41 74
7 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 47 30 77
8 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 40 37 77
9 Seattle Waldorf School Seattle Waldorf School Warriors 35 48 83
10 Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters 28 62 90
11 Tumwater High School Tumwater High School Tumwater 66 32 98
12 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 56 44 100
13 Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 48 53 101
14 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 53 54 107
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 1 1 3 6 1 12 Zach Cooper '20
Arianna Fiore '21
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 5 4 2 5 5 21 Emma Powell '21
Natalie Serbousek '21
Lions Lions Lions 4 2 9 7 3 25
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 2 5 11 8 2 28 Ciara Mcclanahan '19
Rizley Cox '20
Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters 8 7 1 1 11 28 Aaron Danziger '21
Conrad Miller '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3 8 7 2 13 33 Casey Picket '20
Ethan Stein '20
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 7 3 6 11 6 33 Casey Malone '20
Giselle Yaude '20
Seattle Waldorf School Seattle Waldorf School Warriors 9 12 4 3 7 35 Erik Anderson '21
Catie Vandervort '22
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 10 6 10 4 10 40 Parker Hutchinson '20
Jack Chapman '19
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 6 9 12 12 8 47 Sam Bonauto '21
Peter Kelleher '22
Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 12 10 8 9 9 48 Unknown Sailor '17
Olivia Corvelli '18
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 11 11 14 13 4 53 Alejandro Ponce '17
No Show
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 14 13 5 10 14 56 Jacob Weston '19
Max Case '20
Tumwater High School Tumwater High School Tumwater 13 14 13 14 12 66 Ian Connolly '21
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 2 5 4 1 13 Anisha Arcott '18
Kira Allen '14
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 2 1 11 2 2 18 Lindsay Campbell '20 [1-5]
Gus Beer '19 [1-4]
Clayton Marsh '20 [5]
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 6 3 2 7 6 24 Natalie Werner '21
Leila Jones '20
Lions Lions Lions 9 10 1 1 5 26
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 11 8 3 5 3 30 Arica Mcclanahan '21 [1-2, 5]
Hatcher Cox '21 [3-4]
No Show [1-2, 5]
Tumwater High School Tumwater High School Tumwater 4 6 7 8 7 32 Macy Bergford '18
Lindsey Graham '18
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 7 14 6 6 4 37 Camden Lee '19
Jack Sobeck '19
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 5 5 9 12 10 41 Mira Anders '21
Tristan Neinaber '20
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 3 7 12 13 8 43 Ella Hubbard '22
Ellie Davis '21
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 10 4 10 9 11 44 Gus Roelof '20
Artemisia Wangler '21
Seattle Waldorf School Seattle Waldorf School Warriors 13 11 8 3 13 48 Alex Hubbard '19 [1-2, 5]
Elie Simsch '20 [3-4]
Kira Blumhagen '21 [1-2, 5]
Aviv Pinker '21 [3-4]
Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 14 13 4 10 12 53 Kat Grealish '19
Ronan Waterson '18
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 8 9 14 14 9 54 Max Suwarno '20
Tor Olson '21
Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters 12 12 13 11 14 62 Daniel Duyvestein '21
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 132321101103
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 23333343413
LionsLions Lions1101103383
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders3434131384
Benson Polytechnic High SchoolBenson Polytechnic High School Techsters33838315
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals1313848487
Oregon Episcopal SchoolOregon Episcopal School Aardvarks1515515153
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 18383151551
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 28484878755
Seattle Waldorf SchoolSeattle Waldorf School Warriors8787555586
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 15151535332
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 25555868633
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 353533232110
Tumwater High SchoolTumwater High School Tumwater8686333334

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 13333343413
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 21101103383
LionsLions Lions3434131384
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders33838315
Benson Polytechnic High SchoolBenson Polytechnic High School Techsters1313848487
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals8383151551
Oregon Episcopal SchoolOregon Episcopal School Aardvarks8787555586
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 18484878755
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 21515515153
Seattle Waldorf SchoolSeattle Waldorf School Warriors5151535332
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 15555868633
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 253533232110
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 38686333334
Tumwater High SchoolTumwater High School Tumwater32321101103

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1015.4 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.1 kn
avg  ·  max 3.8 kn
Gusts to 7.0 kn
From SSW (213°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1015.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 5 kn · NE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Capital/Olympia: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Capital/Olympia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Capital/Olympia: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →