Lincoln High School - Portland, OR '20
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 1.69 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 21 | Fall 2018 |
| Keelboat | 0.83 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 5 | Fall 2019 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.24 (fleet 2.00) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–5 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 12–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 8–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 20–5 against 17.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-27 | SSP Team Race | skipper | 1.45 | 4.45 | 8–0 | 6.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 23% |
| 2019-04-06 | Portland Team Race | skipper | 1.36 | 1.22 | 4–4 | 4.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | 1.26 | 2.67 | 8–1 | 6.7 | +1.41 | 0.9 | 28% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Keelboat Invitational Qualifier Keelboat | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.2 | 1.62 |
| NWISA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 1.90 |
| Cascadia Cup - Gold | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.8 | -0.33 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 100% | — |
| Portland Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Oregon State Champs | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.5 | 2.09 |
| Anacortes Silver Fleet | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.8 | 1.59 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Fall Championships- Ranking Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 0.85 |
| Cascadia Cup - GOLD | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 0.83 |
| Burke Thomas Trophy - Radial Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.2 | 1.60 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Silver Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.0 | 3.08 |
| NWISA JV Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia: Fall Ranking Championship, Silver | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.6 | 0.66 |
| NWISA Singelhand Champs - RADIAL Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.9 | 2.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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