| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals 3 | 13–0 |
| 2 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars 1 | 8–5 |
| 4 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 7–5 |
| 5 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 7–6 |
| 6 |  |
Nathan Hale High School | Raiders | 6–6 |
| 7 | |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals 1 | 6–2 |
| 8 |  |
Bellingham High School | Raiders | 4–3 |
| 9 |  |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | 3–4 |
| 10 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 3–4 |
| 11 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 3–4 |
| 12 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 3–5 |
| 13 | |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars 2 | 3–5 |
| 14 | |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals 2 | 3–5 |
| 15 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 1–7 |
| 16 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 0–7 |
| 17 |  |
Kingston High School | Varsity | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,160 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 24 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.391 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.99 ± 0.52: an orderly event, more orderly than 98% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3 | 3.19 | 6.19 | 8–0 | 6.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 23% |
| 5 | Olympia High School Bears | 1.33 | 2.33 | 5–3 | 3.7 | +0.99 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 7 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 | 1.81 | 2.11 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 3 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 13 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 14 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 | 0.43 | -0.86 | 1–5 | 2.0 | −1.29 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 17 | Kingston High School Varsity | 0.08 | -2.92 | 0–6 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Picket | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 1.45 | 4.45 | 8–0 | 6.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 23% |
| Ella Notdurft | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | -0.19 | 0.80 | 5–3 | 3.7 | +0.99 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Sam Hopper | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 0.55 | 0.85 | 4–2 | 3.7 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 59% |
| Jeffrey Scholfield | Central Kitsap High School | 0.26 | 0.31 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Annelisa Ayars | Central Kitsap High School | -0.10 | -0.34 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.24 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Jack Gibbons | Central Kitsap High School | 0.42 | -0.17 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.59 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Annika Philips | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 0.12 | -1.17 | 1–5 | 2.0 | −1.29 | 0.7 | 93% |
| Morgan Chandler | Kingston High School | -0.19 | -3.19 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Victor Taylor | Kingston High School | -0.04 | -3.04 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Trenton Filben | Kingston High School | 0.20 | -2.80 | 0–6 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Finnegan Mcmullen | Kingston High School | -0.68 | -3.68 | 0–3 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Cougars 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Redhawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-6 DNF |
| 20 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Cardinals 3 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 27 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Cougars 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-3-6 |
| 37 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Cougars 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Cardinals 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Redhawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 51 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 56 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 58 | |
Cardinals 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 |
| 59 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 63 | |
Cardinals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 64 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-4-6 |
| 65 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 66 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 67 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Cougars 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 69 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 70 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 71 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 72 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 73 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-4-6 |
| 74 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 75 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 76 | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 77 | |
Cardinals 3 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 78 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 79 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars 1 | 1-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
