Kingston High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 (fleet 0.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–12 (33%) as crew 0–4 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 5–5 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–3 | 0–4 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 6–16 against 7.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | Silver Division Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 0.69 | 1.00 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2019-04-27 | SSP Team Race | skipper | -0.04 | -3.04 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | -0.49 | -0.33 | 1–3 | 0.9 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | crew | -0.49 | -3.49 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Season | |||||
| Silver Division Team Race Seeding Regatta | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Seafarer's Cup (RR#2) | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.9 | -0.67 |
| NWISA Ranking Regatta #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.9 | 1.72 |
| NWISA Fleet Race District Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.9 | 0.37 |
| Fall 2022 Season | |||||
| Fall Champs Silver | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.0 | 1.50 |
| Spring 2022 Season | |||||
| Seafarers Cup-GOLD | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.3 | -0.06 |
| Port Townsend Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 0.71 |
| NWISA Silver Fleet | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 0.88 |
| Spring 2020 Season | |||||
| Island Cup - GOLD | Skipper | A | 5 | 15.4 | -0.67 |
| Spring 2019 Season | |||||
| SYC Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.3 | -0.06 |
| SSP Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| South Regional Kickoff | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | -1.54 |
| Port Angeles Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.2 | -0.10 |
| Anacortes Silver Fleet | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 0.26 |
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (SILVER) | Skipper | A, B | 16 | 10.6 | A -0.61 · B -0.50 |
| NWISA JV Team Race Districts | Crew | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Mt. Baker Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 18.9 | — |
| Forrest Cook Silver Fleet | Skipper | A, B | 7 | 6.6 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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