NWISA Silver Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 15 15 30
2 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 12 21 33
3 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 11 32 43
4 Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 1 35 20 55
5 Port Angeles High School Port Angeles High School Roughriders 26 36 62
6 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 50 25 75
7 Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 2 37 43 80
8 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 40 42 82
9 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 44 39 83
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 1 4 1 1 2 2 11 Cormac Burke '22
Tanaya Justice '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3 1 2 2 1 3 12 Nolan Petrin '23
Catie Harding '22
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 2 2 3 3 4 1 15 Nico Konyk '25
Nate Cutting '25
Port Angeles High School Port Angeles High School Roughriders 4 5 5 5 3 4 26 Ozzy Minard '23 [1-6]
Elle Schulz '22 [1-4]
Charlie Kasten '26 [5-6]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 1 7 6 6 6 5 5 35 Shelby Chandler '25
Lena Bowen '23
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 2 6 3 7 7 6 8 37 Dylan Sprague '26
Ryan Pavey '26
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 9 8 4 4 8 7 40 Simone Ford '24
Cove Brammert '25
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 8 7 8 8 7 6 44 Evan Geilenfeldt '22
Keller Matthews '26
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 5 9 9 9 9 9 50 Caroline Overton '26
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 2 1 2 2 2 6 15 Bailey Rainbolt '26
Matthew Embick '23
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 1 4 3 3 4 5 1 20 Shelby Chandler '25 [1-2]
Victor Taylor '23 [3-6]
Acadia Tweed-Kent '25 [1-6]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals DSQ 5 1 1 1 3 21 Alexander Cherevatenko '25
Magnus Long '23
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 5 4 5 6 3 2 25 William Emick '26
Russell Sutcliffe '26
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 3 2 7 5 7 8 32 Kolin Stumpf '23
Victor Gehring '26
Port Angeles High School Port Angeles High School Roughriders 1 9 9 9 4 4 36 Elliot Dahlin '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Fern Knobel '23 [3-4]
Fern Knobel '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Charlie Kasten '26 [3-4]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 8 6 4 8 6 7 39 Lara (Kato) Charters '23
Emily Guerin '25
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 6 7 6 3 DNS DNS 42 Esther Hulverstrom '23
Arden Rathopf '24
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 2 7 8 8 7 8 5 43 Leo Taylor '25 [1-6]
Reagan Johnson '23 [1-4]
Lena Bowen '23 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers11126126112112
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions114114127127123123
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 1126126112112124124
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 212712712312333
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides112112124124156156
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Kraken 11231233311
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Kraken 2124124156156114114
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals3311126126
Port Angeles High SchoolPort Angeles High School Roughriders156156114114127127

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers114114127127123123
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions126126112112124124
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 112712712312333
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 2112112124124156156
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides1231233311
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Kraken 1124124156156114114
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Kraken 23311126126
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals156156114114127127
Port Angeles High SchoolPort Angeles High School Roughriders11126126112112

Conditions — 04/02/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1023.6 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.8 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From SSE (167°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1023.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn · S 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Ballard: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.55 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ballard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Ballard: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →