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South Regional Kickoff

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 39 13 52
2 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School White 18 36 54
3 Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 36 27 63
4 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 50 25 75
5 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Blue 15 81 96
6 Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1 57 47 104
7 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 40 69 109
8 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 63 56 119
9 Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2 64 61 125
10 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 86 56 142
11 Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 1 71 77 148
12 Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 2 94 78 172
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Blue 2 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 15 Axel Stordahl '20
Carlos Rivas '22
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School White 1 3 2 4 2 4 1 1 18 Dayne Hall '22
Ripley Morris '19
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 6 6 3 3 4 2 8 4 36 Annie Buelt '20
Ella Hubbard '22
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 5 2 4 6 1 6 DNS 2 39 Owen Timms '19
Evan Krug '19
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3 4 10 5 5 3 4 6 40 Rowan Hunt '24 [1-8]
Anna Schroeder '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Pearl Young '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 4 7 6 2 6 11 5 9 50 Nicholas Lee '20
Reed Kregenow '22
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1 7 5 5 DNS 7 7 2 11 57 Jack Gibbons '20
Chance Bates '21
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 10 9 8 7 9 8 7 5 63 Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-8]
Mason Loidhamer '23 [1-6]
Mathew Terry '23 [7-8]
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2 9 8 7 9 12 5 6 8 64 Claire Jablonski '19
Jack West '20
Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 1 8 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 71 Noah Pluska '19 [1-8]
Ian Mcconkey '21 [1-4]
Morgan Chandler '20 [5-8]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 12 11 DNF DNS 10 10 10 7 86 Lilyan Coleman '21 [1-4]
Ian Connolly '21 [5-8]
Matthew Baerg '22 [1-4]
Mathew Terry '23 [5-6]
Mason Loidhamer '23 [7-8]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 2 11 12 11 DNS 11 12 11 DNF 94 Annelise Pardee '19
Olivia Costello '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 2 1 2 1 4 1 1 13 Sam Bonauto '21
Caleb Roberts '22
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 3 5 3 3 4 2 3 2 25 Hayden Flaskerud '20
Jaden Unruh '22
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 2 1 2 1 2 3 DNS 3 27 Erin Pamplin '20
Kevin Hicks '19
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School White 4 4 5 4 3 1 10 5 36 Emily Smith '21 [1-8]
Dalton Lovett '21 [1-6]
Brianna Steel '22 [7-8]
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1 9 3 10 5 5 6 2 7 47 Luca Gesinger '20
Henry Stier '19
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 6 9 7 8 8 10 4 4 56 Travis Bouck '20
Stefan Anthony '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 7 7 4 10 10 5 5 8 56 Jeffrey Scholfield '23
Madison Estoque '19
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2 5 10 9 7 7 8 6 9 61 Mary '21
Jenna Hiegel '21
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 11 6 8 6 6 11 9 12 69 Nathan Grundmeier '19 [1-8]
Emma Fish '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Isabelle Loverich '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 1 10 8 11 12 11 7 8 10 77 Victor Taylor '23 [1-8]
Trenton Filben '23 [1-4]
Thomas Emling '23 [5-8]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 2 12 11 12 9 9 12 7 6 78 Finnegan Mcmullen '24 [1-8]
James Huffman '23 [1-4]
Ian Pluska '23 [5-8]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Blue 8 DNS 6 11 12 9 11 11 81 Taggart Messersmith '22 [1-8]
Carter Stevens '23 [1-2, 7-8]
Brianna Steel '22 [3-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars8585119119120120122122
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 11181188787121121123123
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 2119119120120122122124124
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers87871211211231238686
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Blue1201201221221241246464
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School White1211211231238686125125
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Varsity 112212212412464648585
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Varsity 21231238686125125118118
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 164648585119119120120
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 21251251181188787121121
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish12412464648585119119
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears86861251251181188787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars1181188787121121123123
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 1119119120120122122124124
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 287871211211231238686
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers1201201221221241246464
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Blue1211211231238686125125
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School White12212212412464648585
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Varsity 11231238686125125118118
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Varsity 212412464648585119119
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 11251251181188787121121
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 28585119119120120122122
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish86861251251181188787
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears64648585119119120120
School / Team SkipperCrew
Capital High School Capital High School Annie Buelt '20 Ella Hubbard '22
Cougars Erin Pamplin '20 Kevin Hicks '19
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-8] Mason Loidhamer '23 [1-6]
Mathew Terry '23 [7-8]
Cougars 1 Travis Bouck '20 Stefan Anthony '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Lilyan Coleman '21 [1-4]
Ian Connolly '21 [5-8]		 Matthew Baerg '22 [1-4]
Mathew Terry '23 [5-6]
Mason Loidhamer '23 [7-8]
Cougars 2 Jeffrey Scholfield '23 Madison Estoque '19
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Nicholas Lee '20 Reed Kregenow '22
Tarriers Hayden Flaskerud '20 Jaden Unruh '22
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Axel Stordahl '20 Carlos Rivas '22
Blue Taggart Messersmith '22 [1-8] Carter Stevens '23 [1-2, 7-8]
Brianna Steel '22 [3-6]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Dayne Hall '22 Ripley Morris '19
White Emily Smith '21 [1-8] Dalton Lovett '21 [1-6]
Brianna Steel '22 [7-8]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Noah Pluska '19 [1-8] Ian Mcconkey '21 [1-4]
Morgan Chandler '20 [5-8]
Varsity 1 Victor Taylor '23 [1-8] Trenton Filben '23 [1-4]
Thomas Emling '23 [5-8]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Annelise Pardee '19 Olivia Costello '21
Varsity 2 Finnegan Mcmullen '24 [1-8] James Huffman '23 [1-4]
Ian Pluska '23 [5-8]
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Jack Gibbons '20 Chance Bates '21
Red Hawks 1 Luca Gesinger '20 Henry Stier '19
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Claire Jablonski '19 Jack West '20
Red Hawks 2 Mary '21 Jenna Hiegel '21
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Rowan Hunt '24 [1-8] Anna Schroeder '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Pearl Young '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Dogfish Nathan Grundmeier '19 [1-8] Emma Fish '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Isabelle Loverich '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Owen Timms '19 Evan Krug '19
Bears Sam Bonauto '21 Caleb Roberts '22

Conditions — 03/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1021.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Central Kitsap: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Central Kitsap by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Central Kitsap, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →