Kingston High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.15 (fleet -0.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–21 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 5–21 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 5–21 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | 0.06 | -0.94 | 1–7 | 1.8 | −1.00 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | skipper | 0.07 | -1.30 | 1–13 | 2.4 | −1.37 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2018-03-24 | NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | skipper | -0.11 | 4.78 | 3–1 | 0.4 | +4.89 | 7.6 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Season | |||||
| SYC Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.7 | -1.52 |
| South Regional Kickoff | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | -0.61 |
| NWISA Ranking Regatta #2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 19.1 | -2.60 |
| Islands Cup 2019 | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.3 | -0.45 |
| Anacortes Silver Fleet | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.0 | -0.27 |
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (GOLD) | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 17.7 | -2.94 |
| NWISA South Regionals | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.4 | -0.94 |
| NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| NWISA JV Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Mt. Baker Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.7 | -2.55 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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