Islands Cup 2019

HostOrcas
Date04/13/2019
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Orcas High School	Vikings	59	42	101
2	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	38	65	103
3	Olympia High School	Bears	58	60	118
4	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	57	72	129
5	Sehome High School	Mariners	76	67	143
6	Ingraham High School	Rams	41	130	171
7	Capital High School	Cougars	79	111	190
8	Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	99	105	204
9	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	166	97	263
10	Squalicum High School	Storm	174	96	270
11	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	156	121	277
12	Hood River Valley High School	Eagles	130	152	282
13	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	155	142	297
14	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	147	160	307
15	Inglemoor High School	Vikings	133	178	311
16	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	213	144	357
17	Bellingham High School	Raiders	156	209	365
18	Seahawks	Seahawks	187	181	368
19	Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals	157	226	383
20	Kingston High School	Varsity	235	196	431

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	11	3	1	2	2	1	4	4	2	1	6	1	38	Axel Stordahl '20 Carlos Rivas '22
Ingraham High School	Rams	3	6	3	1	6	5	6	3	1	3	1	3	41	Maks Groom '20 Duncan Weiner '20
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	1	10	5	BKD	1	2	9	1	5	5	8	5	57	Noah Fernandes '23 Barrett Lhamon '22
Olympia High School	Bears	7	2	2	5	3	6	1	2	10	9	7	4	58	Owen Timms '19 [1-12] Evan Krug '19 [1-8] Ellie Davis '21 [9-12]
Orcas High School	Vikings	2	1	4	4	4	3	11	13	6	6	3	2	59	Dominick Wareham '19 Millie Kau '19
Sehome High School	Mariners	5	5	8	8	8	4	3	9	4	4	9	9	76	Cedric Keneipp '22 Mira Anders '22
Capital High School	Cougars	14	9	6	3	5	11	5	10	3	2	5	6	79	Annie Buelt '20 Ann Li '20
Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	10	7	14	9	9	9	2	5	9	10	4	11	99	Hayden Flaskerud '20 Reed Kregenow '22
Hood River Valley High School	Eagles	6	15	13	6	7	13	8	15	11	12	16	8	130	Pelle Bergstrom '19 Izzy Lira '19
Inglemoor High School	Vikings	18	8	9	10	14	10	7	7	8	14	15	13	133	Jessica Reeves '20 Ella Barnard '20
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	13	13	12	16	DNS	DNS	12	8	15	7	2	7	147	Tyler Nolasco '19 Jazmine Clewis '19
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	12	12	7	15	12	14	13	17	18	13	10	12	155	Jack Gibbons '20 Odin Smith '21
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	9	4	16	7	15	15	17	18	13	15	12	15	156	Thomas Buys '22 [1-12] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [1-6] Andrew Buys '21 [7-10] Cooper Billiter '22 [11-12]
Bellingham High School	Raiders	15	17	10	13	BKD	BKD	15	6	16	17	11	10	156	Jack Knowles '22 Margaret Burgess '22
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals	4	19	DNF	DNS	11	8	10	11	12	11	13	16	157	Alden Mcgonagle '21 [1-12] Kaia Armas '21 [1-4, 7-12] Ray Mcdavid '22 [5-6]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	8	18	18	14	10	12	14	12	7	16	18	19	166	Nathan Grundmeier '19 [1-4, 11-12] Anna Sherry '19 [5-10] Isabelle Loverich '19 [1-10] Nolan Loverich '22 [11-12]
Squalicum High School	Storm	16	16	11	11	13	7	19	20	19	8	17	17	174	Cole Sokolik '22 [1-12] Reid Fryer '22 [1-6, 11-12] Nesta Hill '22 [7-10]
Seahawks	Seahawks	19	11	15	12	16	17	18	16	17	18	14	14	187
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	17	14	19	DNS	DNS	DNS	16	14	14	19	19	18	213	Zoe Plattner '20 Ray Mcdavid '22
Kingston High School	Varsity	20	20	17	17	DNF	DNS	20	19	20	20	20	20	235	Ian Mcconkey '21 Annelise Pardee '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Orcas High School	Vikings	2	9	3	3	1	1	3	2	1	3	4	10	42	Ronan Rankin '19 Miette Woolworth '21
Olympia High School	Bears	7	3	12	8	5	13	2	1	3	2	1	3	60	Erin Pamplin '20 [1-6] Sam Bonauto '21 [7-12] Kevin Hicks '19 [1-6]
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	4	6	1	1	6	3	8	6	DSQ	5	2	2	65	Dayne Hall '22 Ripley Morris '19
Sehome High School	Mariners	3	2	2	2	14	12	1	7	2	1	15	6	67	Casey Malone '22 Artemisia Wangler '22
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	1	1	5	15	7	2	7	3	10	4	9	8	72	Dane Petrakis '21 [1-9, 11] Rowan Hunt '24 [10, 12] Rowan Hunt '24 [1-9, 11] Dane Petrakis '21 [10, 12]
Squalicum High School	Storm	5	7	8	5	15	6	4	11	8	7	3	17	96	Jacob Weston '22 Madeline Roberts '22
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	14	14	7	7	2	4	6	10	6	9	6	12	97	Nolan Loverich '22 [1-2] Julia Sherry '19 [3-12] Anna Schroeder '19 [1-2]
Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	10	12	4	4	3	8	12	9	DSQ	6	5	11	105	Nicholas Lee '20 Ben Brink '22
Capital High School	Cougars	9	4	6	9	4	7	10	12	DSQ	10	14	5	111	Joy Brennan '20 Caroline Hurley '20
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	8	5	15	11	8	5	20	13	9	16	7	4	121	Ben Servatius '22 [1-12] Cooper Billiter '22 [1-6] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [7-12]
Ingraham High School	Rams	15	15	DNS	DNS	13	11	5	4	4	12	8	1	130	Kira Blumhagen '21 Catie Vandervort '22
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	13	11	14	12	11	15	13	15	7	8	16	7	142	Mary Darcy '21 Chance Bates '21
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	11	8	BKD	16	16	9	11	8	5	18	11	19	144	Dexter Shafer-White '22 Jack Rovner '20
Hood River Valley High School	Eagles	6	13	9	10	12	10	9	17	14	13	19	20	152	Kevin Johnston '20 Paris Nunn '19
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	17	10	10	6	9	14	19	14	13	17	18	13	160	Claire Jablonski '19 [1-2, 9-10] Cormac Burke '22 [3-8, 11-12] Annelisa Ayars '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Inglemoor High School	Vikings	18	19	13	13	10	16	15	5	15	19	17	18	178	Tian Marchello '20 Johnny Vaughey '21
Seahawks	Seahawks	16	17	16	14	17	DNS	18	18	11	14	10	9	181
Kingston High School	Varsity	20	16	11	DNF	DNS	DNS	16	20	12	11	12	15	196	Nash Levy '19 [1-6] Noah Pluska '19 [7-12] Olivia Costello '21 [1-6]
Bellingham High School	Raiders	12	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	14	19	17	15	13	14	209	Morgan Seestrom '22 [1] Maya Gray '22 [2-12] Maya Gray '22 [1] Sedona Webb '22 [2-12]
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals	19	18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	17	16	16	20	20	16	226	Willem Patrick '21 Jaxon Gordon '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Seahawks Seahawks	20	20	27	27	52	52	24	24	22	22	30	30
Bainbridge High School Spartans	27	27	52	52	24	24	22	22	30	30	29	29
Bellingham High School Raiders	52	52	24	24	22	22	30	30	29	29	21	21
Capital High School Cougars	24	24	22	22	30	30	29	29	21	21	25	25
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	22	22	30	30	29	29	21	21	25	25	8	8
Charles Wright Academy Tarriers	30	30	29	29	21	21	25	25	8	8	26	26
Gig Harbor High School Tides	29	29	21	21	25	25	8	8	26	26	9	9
Hood River Valley High School Eagles	21	21	25	25	8	8	26	26	9	9	32	32
Inglemoor High School Vikings	25	25	8	8	26	26	9	9	32	32	10	10
Ingraham High School Rams	8	8	26	26	9	9	32	32	10	10	23	23
Kingston High School Varsity	26	26	9	9	32	32	10	10	23	23	28	28
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	9	9	32	32	10	10	23	23	28	28	31	31
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	32	32	10	10	23	23	28	28	31	31	7	7
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	10	10	23	23	28	28	31	31	7	7	51	51
Olympia High School Bears	23	23	28	28	31	31	7	7	51	51	53	53
Orcas High School Vikings	28	28	31	31	7	7	51	51	53	53	20	20
Port Townsend High School Redhawks	31	31	7	7	51	51	53	53	20	20	27	27
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals	7	7	51	51	53	53	20	20	27	27	52	52
Sehome High School Mariners	51	51	53	53	20	20	27	27	52	52	24	24
Squalicum High School Storm	53	53	20	20	27	27	52	52	24	24	22	22

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Seahawks Seahawks	26	26	9	9	32	32	10	10	23	23	28	28
Bainbridge High School Spartans	9	9	32	32	10	10	23	23	28	28	31	31
Bellingham High School Raiders	32	32	10	10	23	23	28	28	31	31	7	7
Capital High School Cougars	10	10	23	23	28	28	31	31	7	7	51	51
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	23	23	28	28	31	31	7	7	51	51	53	53
Charles Wright Academy Tarriers	28	28	31	31	7	7	51	51	53	53	20	20
Gig Harbor High School Tides	31	31	7	7	51	51	53	53	20	20	27	27
Hood River Valley High School Eagles	7	7	51	51	53	53	20	20	27	27	52	52
Inglemoor High School Vikings	51	51	53	53	20	20	27	27	52	52	24	24
Ingraham High School Rams	53	53	20	20	27	27	52	52	24	24	22	22
Kingston High School Varsity	20	20	27	27	52	52	24	24	22	22	30	30
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	27	27	52	52	24	24	22	22	30	30	29	29
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	52	52	24	24	22	22	30	30	29	29	21	21
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	24	24	22	22	30	30	29	29	21	21	25	25
Olympia High School Bears	22	22	30	30	29	29	21	21	25	25	8	8
Orcas High School Vikings	30	30	29	29	21	21	25	25	8	8	26	26
Port Townsend High School Redhawks	29	29	21	21	25	25	8	8	26	26	9	9
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals	21	21	25	25	8	8	26	26	9	9	32	32
Sehome High School Mariners	25	25	8	8	26	26	9	9	32	32	10	10
Squalicum High School Storm	8	8	26	26	9	9	32	32	10	10	23	23

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bainbridge High School	Noah Fernandes '23	Barrett Lhamon '22
Spartans	Dane Petrakis '21 [1-9, 11] Rowan Hunt '24 [10, 12]	Rowan Hunt '24 [1-9, 11] Dane Petrakis '21 [10, 12]
Bellingham High School	Jack Knowles '22	Margaret Burgess '22
Raiders	Morgan Seestrom '22 [1] Maya Gray '22 [2-12]	Maya Gray '22 [1] Sedona Webb '22 [2-12]
Capital High School	Annie Buelt '20	Ann Li '20
Cougars	Joy Brennan '20	Caroline Hurley '20
Central Kitsap High School	Tyler Nolasco '19	Jazmine Clewis '19
Cougars	Claire Jablonski '19 [1-2, 9-10] Cormac Burke '22 [3-8, 11-12]	Annelisa Ayars '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Charles Wright Academy	Hayden Flaskerud '20	Reed Kregenow '22
Tarriers	Nicholas Lee '20	Ben Brink '22
Gig Harbor High School	Axel Stordahl '20	Carlos Rivas '22
Tides	Dayne Hall '22	Ripley Morris '19
Hood River Valley High School	Pelle Bergstrom '19	Izzy Lira '19
Eagles	Kevin Johnston '20	Paris Nunn '19
Inglemoor High School	Jessica Reeves '20	Ella Barnard '20
Vikings	Tian Marchello '20	Johnny Vaughey '21
Ingraham High School	Maks Groom '20	Duncan Weiner '20
Rams	Kira Blumhagen '21	Catie Vandervort '22
Kingston High School	Ian Mcconkey '21	Annelise Pardee '19
Varsity	Nash Levy '19 [1-6] Noah Pluska '19 [7-12]	Olivia Costello '21 [1-6]
Nathan Hale High School	Zoe Plattner '20	Ray Mcdavid '22
Raiders	Dexter Shafer-White '22	Jack Rovner '20
North Kitsap High School	Nathan Grundmeier '19 [1-4, 11-12] Anna Sherry '19 [5-10]	Isabelle Loverich '19 [1-10] Nolan Loverich '22 [11-12]
Dogfish	Nolan Loverich '22 [1-2] Julia Sherry '19 [3-12]	Anna Schroeder '19 [1-2]
Oak Harbor High School	Thomas Buys '22 [1-12]	Willa Weinsheimer '20 [1-6] Andrew Buys '21 [7-10] Cooper Billiter '22 [11-12]
Wildcats	Ben Servatius '22 [1-12]	Cooper Billiter '22 [1-6] Willa Weinsheimer '20 [7-12]
Olympia High School	Owen Timms '19 [1-12]	Evan Krug '19 [1-8] Ellie Davis '21 [9-12]
Bears	Erin Pamplin '20 [1-6] Sam Bonauto '21 [7-12]	Kevin Hicks '19 [1-6]
Orcas High School	Dominick Wareham '19	Millie Kau '19
Vikings	Ronan Rankin '19	Miette Woolworth '21
Port Townsend High School	Jack Gibbons '20	Odin Smith '21
Redhawks	Mary Darcy '21	Chance Bates '21
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Alden Mcgonagle '21 [1-12]	Kaia Armas '21 [1-4, 7-12] Ray Mcdavid '22 [5-6]
Cardinals	Willem Patrick '21	Jaxon Gordon '21
Sehome High School	Cedric Keneipp '22	Mira Anders '22
Mariners	Casey Malone '22	Artemisia Wangler '22
Squalicum High School	Cole Sokolik '22 [1-12]	Reid Fryer '22 [1-6, 11-12] Nesta Hill '22 [7-10]
Storm	Jacob Weston '22	Madeline Roberts '22

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 93% · Pressure 1010.0 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.0 kn

avg · max 18.3 kn

Gusts to 46.5 kn

From SSE (163°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1010.0 hPa Rain0.50 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 17 kn · SW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Orcas: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Orcas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Orcas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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