Squalicum High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.42 (fleet 0.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–10 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 4–10 against 6.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-27 | Trick or Treat Team Race | skipper | 0.47 | 0.57 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | 0.26 | -1.68 | 2–6 | 4.2 | −1.94 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Islands Cup 2019 | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.0 | 1.19 |
| 2019 NWISA Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.7 | 0.05 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - SILVER | Skipper | A | 6 | 19.3 | -2.42 |
| Oak Harbor Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.3 | 0.56 |
| NWISA JV Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.0 | -0.66 |
| ISLANDS CUP | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.3 | -0.67 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SYC Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 25.7 | -2.18 |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.0 | -1.56 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 24.3 | -3.68 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jacob Weston |  Bellingham High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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