| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 6–0 |
| 1 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 6–0 |
| 3 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners 1 | 5–2 |
| 4 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 3–3 |
| 8 | |
Sehome High School | Mariners 2 | 2–4 |
| 9 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 2–4 |
| 9 |  |
Ballard High School | Beavers | 2–4 |
| 11 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 1–6 |
| 12 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,635 team race matches sailed before 2018-10-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 31 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.463 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gig Harbor High School Tides | 4.76 | 7.76 | 5–0 | 4.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 32% |
| 1 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 4.00 | 7.00 | 5–0 | 4.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 35% |
| 6 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | 0.34 | 1.47 | 2–3 | 1.1 | +1.14 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 9 | Ballard High School Beavers | 1.47 | 1.82 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 4 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 2.75 | 3.08 | 4–3 | 3.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 8 | Sehome High School Mariners 2 | 2.00 | 2.09 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 6 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 3.42 | 3.21 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 3 | Sehome High School Mariners 1 | 4.15 | 3.71 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 9 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 0.98 | 0.09 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.89 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 5 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 2.21 | 1.16 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −1.05 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 12 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 1.82 | -0.15 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.97 | 1.5 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rams | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Tides | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Beavers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Tides | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Tides | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Bears 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Beavers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Tides | ||
| 40 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
| 41 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Beavers | ||
| 42 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Mariners 2 | ||
| 43 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Tides | ||
| 44 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 45 | |
Rams | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
| 46 | |
Beavers | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 47 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Mariners 1 | ||
| 48 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | ||
| 49 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
| 50 | |
Beavers | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 51 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Tides | ||
| 52 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Rams | ||
| 53 | |
Mariners 1 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 54 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
| 55 | |
Mariners 2 | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 56 | |
Beavers | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 57 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 58 | |
Tides | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 59 | |
Mariners 1 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 60 | |
Mariners 2 | def. | |
Rams | ||
| 61 | |
Rough Riders | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 62 | |
Tides | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 63 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 64 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Mariners 1 | ||
| 65 | |
Beavers | def. | |
Rams | ||
| 66 | |
Mariners 2 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
