Olympia High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 (fleet 0.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 9–10 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | — | 5–7 |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | — | 4–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 9–10 against 9.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | Portland Team Race | crew | 1.12 | -0.30 | 3–5 | 4.8 | −1.42 | 1.4 | 97% |
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | crew | 1.04 | 1.94 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +0.89 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2018-10-27 | Trick or Treat Team Race | crew | 0.94 | 1.26 | 4–3 | 3.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Portland Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Trick or Treat Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| NWISA: South Regional, Olympia | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.6 | -0.37 |
| 2019 Rose Bowl Regatta - Bronze | Crew | A | 6 | 2.3 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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