| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Benson Polytechnic High School | Techsters | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals 1 | 4–4 |
| 5 | |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals 2 | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 4–4 |
| 7 |  |
Capital High School | Capital | 3–5 |
| 8 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 3–5 |
| 9 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,898 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 36 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.688 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.05 ± 0.38: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gig Harbor High School Tides | 4.09 | 7.09 | 8–0 | 6.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.9 | 10% |
| 2 | Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters | 1.90 | 4.30 | 6–2 | 3.2 | +2.40 | 3.7 | 3% |
| 5 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 | 1.09 | 2.79 | 4–4 | 1.9 | +1.70 | 2.0 | 9% |
| 3 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 1.49 | 2.65 | 4–4 | 2.6 | +1.16 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 4 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 | 2.66 | 2.53 | 4–4 | 4.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 8 | Olympia High School Bears | 3.07 | 1.65 | 3–5 | 4.8 | −1.42 | 1.4 | 97% |
| 6 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 3.95 | 2.42 | 4–4 | 5.9 | −1.53 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 7 | Capital High School Capital | 3.71 | 1.59 | 3–5 | 5.7 | −2.11 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 9 | North Kitsap High School Dogfish | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–8 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Techsters | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Capital | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Techsters | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Capital | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Cardinals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Tides | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cardinals 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Capital | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Techsters | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Tides | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Capital | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Cardinals 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Tides | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Techsters | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cardinals 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Capital | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Techsters | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Capital | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Techsters | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Techsters | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Techsters | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Capital | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 32 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cardinals 1 | 2-4-6 DSQ |
| 35 | |
Cardinals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Capital | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
