Benson Polytechnic High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.05 (fleet -0.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–24 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 4–11 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 8–8 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 16–24 against 14.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-10 | Bainbridge Team Race - April 2021 | skipper | 0.15 | -0.26 | 4–11 | 4.9 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2019-04-27 | 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 0.31 | -0.11 | 2–6 | 2.5 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2019-04-06 | Portland Team Race | skipper | 0.06 | 2.46 | 6–2 | 3.2 | +2.40 | 3.7 | 3% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | -0.15 | -0.17 | 4–5 | 4.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Doublehanded Champs | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.7 | -0.80 |
| Bainbridge Team Race - April 2021 | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Fall Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.0 | 0.74 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | B | 7 | 29.0 | — |
| Portland Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| 2019 NWISA Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | B | 11 | 14.8 | -0.28 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA: South Regional, Olympia | Skipper | A | 5 | 15.4 | -2.00 |
| NWISA Fall Championships- Ranking Regatta #1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | 0.48 |
| Cascadia Cup - GOLD | Skipper | B | 7 | 15.3 | -2.49 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA JV Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia: Fall Ranking Championship, Silver | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.4 | -2.51 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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