| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 7–4 |
| 2 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 7–4 |
| 4 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 5–6 |
| 5 |  |
Benson Polytechnic High School | Techsters | 3–8 |
| 6 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 1–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,005 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 45 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.644 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.80 ± 0.38: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 3.80 | 5.27 | 13–2 | 10.4 | +1.47 | 2.0 | 10% |
| 2 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | 2.46 | 3.47 | 9–6 | 6.6 | +1.02 | 1.4 | 13% |
| 6 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 1.31 | 1.59 | 4–11 | 3.5 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 3.22 | 2.82 | 8–7 | 9.0 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 5 | Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters | 1.88 | 1.47 | 4–11 | 4.9 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 4 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 3.65 | 2.09 | 7–8 | 10.7 | −1.56 | 3.3 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Techsters | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Techsters | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Techsters | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Techsters | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Techsters | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Techsters | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Spartans 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Techsters | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Techsters | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Techsters | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Techsters | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Techsters | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 35 | |
Techsters | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 36 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 37 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 38 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Techsters | ||
| 39 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Cardinals | ||
| 40 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 41 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Techsters | ||
| 42 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 43 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Techsters | ||
| 44 | |
Bears 2 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 45 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
