Bainbridge High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 (fleet 0.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–14 (53%) as crew 3–6 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 10–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 6–10 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | — | 3–6 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 19–20 against 21.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 0.59 | 0.99 | 3–3 | 2.6 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2023-04-22 | Silver Division Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 0.41 | 1.61 | 7–1 | 6.0 | +1.20 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 2022-04-30 | Gallium Division Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.14 | -1.23 | 6–10 | 9.7 | −1.37 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2021-04-10 | Bainbridge Team Race - April 2021 | crew | 0.95 | 0.92 | 3–6 | 3.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 64% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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