| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 14–2 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 6–10 |
| 3 |  |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | 4–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,326 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 24 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.576 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.19 ± 0.50: a typical event, more orderly than 28% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sehome High School Mariners | 1 | 2.09 school +0.23 | Bailey Logan / Britton Sanford Mike Rogge / Aili Vanyo 0.34 Max Day / Emma Moore | 68% | 14–2 (88%) | +3.2 |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 2 | 1.82 | Nolan Wiggins / Talia Esarey Stone Dewey / Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter 6–2 Beto Torres / Joseph Tappen 6–2 Stone Dewey / Maura Bascom 0–8 Beto Torres / Payton Mcphail 0–8 | 61% | 6–10 (38%) | −3.7 |
| 3 | Port Townsend High School Redhawks | 3 | 0.28 | Ocean Smith / Panya Cao Viola Frank / Akeyla Behrenfeld Noah Holly / Luca Campbell | 22% | 4–12 (25%) | +0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sehome High School | 2.09 | 3.71 | 14–2 | 10.8 | +1.63 | 2.6 | 6% |
| 3 | Port Townsend High School | 0.28 | 0.54 | 4–12 | 3.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School | 1.82 | 0.45 | 6–10 | 9.7 | −1.37 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Logan | Sehome High School | 0.91 | 2.53 | 14–2 | 10.8 | +1.63 | 2.6 | 6% |
| Viola Frank | Port Townsend High School | -0.32 | -0.07 | 4–12 | 3.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Beto Torres | Bainbridge High School | 0.14 | -1.23 | 6–10 | 9.7 | −1.37 | 2.9 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Mariners | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Redhawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Redhawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Spartans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Mariners | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Redhawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Mariners | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sehome High School | Mariners | Bailey Logan '22 Max Day '26 Mike Rogge '22 |
Britton Sanford '23 Emma Moore '25 Aili Vanyo '24 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Beto Torres '24 Nolan Wiggins '23 Stone Dewey '26 |
Joseph Tappen '25 Payton Mcphail '24 Talia Esarey '24 Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25 Maura Bascom '24 |
|
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | Noah Holly '24 Ocean Smith '24 Viola Frank '22 |
Luca Campbell '24 Panya Cao '24 Akeyla Behrenfeld '25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
