Sehome High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 (fleet 0.35) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–14 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 14–2 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 2–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 16–14 against 13.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | Gallium Division Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.34 | 1.97 | 14–2 | 10.8 | +1.63 | 2.6 | 6% |
| 2021-04-24 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.03 | -0.15 | 2–12 | 2.3 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Seafarers Cup-GOLD | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.3 | 0.25 |
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | 0.94 |
| NWISA Combined Division Silver | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | 0.35 |
| Islands Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.9 | -0.11 |
| Gallium Division Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 16 | 88% | — |
| Bellingham Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | -0.15 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Oak Harbor North Regional Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | -0.48 |
| Cascadia Cup (Gold) | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | -1.41 |
| 2021 NWISA Fall Champs - Gold Fleet | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.3 | -0.45 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| Bellingham Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.1 | 0.27 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Cascadia Cup - Silver | Skipper | B | 8 | 20.9 | — |
| Bellingham Regional | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | -1.29 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Mike Rogge |  Anacortes High School |
'22 |
| ISSA | Mike Rogge |  Bellingham High School |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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