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Oak Harbor North Regional Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Purple 13 34 47
2 The Downtown School The Downtown School The Downtown School 46 10 56
3 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 1 10 51 61
4 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Gold 52 16 68
5 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 2 32 46 78
6 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1 44 52 96
7 Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W 52 47 99
8 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 48 55 103
9 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3 67 38 105
10 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 2 35 77 112
11 Explorations Academy Explorations Academy Penguins 75 44 119
12 Seahawks 3 Seahawks 3 Seahawks 3 68 58 126
13 Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1 54 74 128
14 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 54 77 131
15 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 88 61 149
16 Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2 78 93 171
17 Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 97 86 183
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 10 Catie Vandervort '22 [1-6]
Phoebe Howe '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Coleman Barnes '23 [3-4]
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Purple 1 1 3 3 2 3 13 Thomas Buys '22
Ej Boilek '22
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 2 9 4 4 2 8 5 32 Ian Beatty '22
Emma Burgess '22
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 2 5 5 10 9 4 2 35
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1 8 7 12 6 5 6 44 Willow Gray '24
Lulu Haestad '24
The Downtown School The Downtown School The Downtown School 6 10 1 8 3 DSQ 46 Isabelle Mcnabb '22
Ethan Hawkins '23
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 2 12 7 7 13 7 48 Bailey Logan '23
Ash Elliott '24
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Gold 4 6 13 10 9 10 52 Anna Servatius '24
Allison Bailey '23
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W 11 9 5 13 6 8 52 Nadia Khalil '23
No Show
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 7 8 9 14 12 4 54 Mike Rogge '23 [1-6]
Axel Hayley '25 [1-4]
Aili Vanyo '24 [5-6]
Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1 10 3 6 4 15 16 54
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3 13 14 11 5 10 14 67 Elliott ? '26
Evan Maudlin '23
Seahawks 3 Seahawks 3 Seahawks 3 17 11 RDG 11 7 11 68
Explorations Academy Explorations Academy Penguins 12 15 8 15 16 9 75 Sophie North '22
Nate North '24
Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2 15 13 14 12 11 13 78
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 14 17 15 16 14 12 88 Katy Woo '24
Nate Hettick '23
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 16 16 16 17 17 15 97 Eliss Ingman '22 [1-6]
Miles Bartlett '22 [1-4]
Solvay Copeland '24 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Downtown School The Downtown School The Downtown School 1 1 1 1 5 1 10 Francesca Dougherty '25
Mia Mcnabb '24
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Gold 2 5 2 2 3 2 16 Ben Servatius '22 [1-6]
Callie Carlson '24 [1-2]
Dominic Schinning '25 [3-4]
Jonathan Brady '23 [5-6]
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Purple 5 6 8 7 2 6 34 Ryan Metz '22
Shelby Lang '23
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3 4 13 5 6 1 9 38 Max Suwarno '22
Emmett ? '26
Explorations Academy Explorations Academy Penguins 7 2 4 8 11 12 44 Dylan Boydstun '23
Chance Ozmer '23
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 2 15 9 6 4 8 4 46 Alder Macgillivray '22
Mia Clarke '24
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W 10 3 12 13 6 3 47 Will Seegert '23
No Show
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 1 6 4 11 12 13 5 51 John Butler '23 [1-6]
No Show [1-4]
Simone Ford '24 [5-6]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1 9 11 9 5 10 8 52 Talia Clarke '22
Tess Sivret '24
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 13 10 3 14 4 11 55 Cole Helms '24
Natalie Aarstol '23
Seahawks 3 Seahawks 3 Seahawks 3 8 7 7 9 17 10 58
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 3 14 14 3 12 15 61 Oscar Hayes-Fegley '25
Bryce Lutz '23
Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1 12 8 16 11 14 13 74
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 2 11 17 10 16 9 14 77
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 16 15 17 15 7 7 77 Keagan Carrigan '24
Izzy Mullaly '25
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 14 16 13 10 16 17 86 Wyatt Mantha '22
Luca ? '22
Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2 DNF 12 15 17 15 16 93
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Seahawks 1Seahawks 1 Seahawks 199991011013838
Seahawks 2Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2100100373733
Seahawks 3Seahawks 3 Seahawks 3101101383844
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 137373355
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 23838444343
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks 1335588
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks 244434311
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks 3558822
Explorations AcademyExplorations Academy Penguins4343115353
Lincoln High School - Seattle WALincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W88225555
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Gold22555566
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Purple1153535656
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 1535356561111
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 25555669999
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 356561111100100
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm669999101101
The Downtown SchoolThe Downtown School The Downtown School11111001003737

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Seahawks 1Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1100100373733
Seahawks 2Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2101101383844
Seahawks 3Seahawks 3 Seahawks 337373355
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 13838444343
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 2335588
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks 144434311
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks 2558822
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks 34343115353
Explorations AcademyExplorations Academy Penguins88225555
Lincoln High School - Seattle WALincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W1153535656
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Gold535356561111
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Purple22555566
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 15555669999
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 256561111100100
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 3669999101101
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm11111001003737
The Downtown SchoolThe Downtown School The Downtown School99991011013838
School / Team SkipperCrew
Ballard High School Ballard High School Catie Vandervort '22 [1-6] Phoebe Howe '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Coleman Barnes '23 [3-4]
Beavers 1 John Butler '23 [1-6] No Show [1-4]
Simone Ford '24 [5-6]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Willow Gray '24 Lulu Haestad '24
Bayhawks 1 Talia Clarke '22 Tess Sivret '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Ian Beatty '22 Emma Burgess '22
Bayhawks 2 Alder Macgillivray '22 Mia Clarke '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Elliott ? '26 Evan Maudlin '23
Bayhawks 3 Max Suwarno '22 Emmett ? '26
Explorations Academy Explorations Academy Sophie North '22 Nate North '24
Penguins Dylan Boydstun '23 Chance Ozmer '23
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Nadia Khalil '23 No Show
Lincoln - Seattle W Will Seegert '23 No Show
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Anna Servatius '24 Allison Bailey '23
Gold Ben Servatius '22 [1-6] Callie Carlson '24 [1-2]
Dominic Schinning '25 [3-4]
Jonathan Brady '23 [5-6]
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Thomas Buys '22 Ej Boilek '22
Purple Ryan Metz '22 Shelby Lang '23
Sehome High School Sehome High School Bailey Logan '23 Ash Elliott '24
Mariners 1 Cole Helms '24 Natalie Aarstol '23
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mike Rogge '23 [1-6] Axel Hayley '25 [1-4]
Aili Vanyo '24 [5-6]
Mariners 2 Keagan Carrigan '24 Izzy Mullaly '25
Sehome High School Sehome High School Katy Woo '24 Nate Hettick '23
Mariners 3 Oscar Hayes-Fegley '25 Bryce Lutz '23
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Eliss Ingman '22 [1-6] Miles Bartlett '22 [1-4]
Solvay Copeland '24 [5-6]
Storm Wyatt Mantha '22 Luca ? '22
The Downtown School The Downtown School Isabelle Mcnabb '22 Ethan Hawkins '23
The Downtown School Francesca Dougherty '25 Mia Mcnabb '24

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.7 kn
avg  ·  max 17.8 kn
Gusts to 34.8 kn
From SE (136°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.8 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1020.8 hPa Rain0.11 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oak Harbor: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.30 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oak Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Oak Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →