Lincoln High School - Seattle WA '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.29 (fleet 0.45) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–6 (57%) as crew 0–3 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 7–4 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 8–9 against 6.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | Silver Division Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.37 | 1.39 | 7–4 | 4.9 | +1.02 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 2019-10-12 | Seattle Team Race | skipper | -0.10 | 0.64 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.74 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 2019-10-12 | Seattle Team Race | crew | -0.10 | -3.10 | 0–3 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Silver Fleet Champs | Skipper | A | 5 | 18.4 | -0.88 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Oak Harbor North Regional Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | -0.09 |
| Cascadia Cup (Gold) | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.9 | -0.51 |
| 2021 NWISA Fall Champs - Gold Fleet | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.6 | 0.67 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Will Seegert |  Ballard High School |
'23 |
| ISSA | Will Seegert |  Nathan Hale High School |
'23 |
| ISSA | Will Seegert |  Ingraham High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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