| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 8–4 |
| 2 |  |
Charles Wright Academy | Tarriers | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 8–4 |
| 4 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 7–5 |
| 5 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 7–5 |
| 6 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 7–4 |
| 7 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 3–8 |
| 8 |  |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | 3–8 |
| 9 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 1–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,326 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 52 matches (65%) with a log-loss of 0.645 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness +0.67 ± 0.74: a typical event, more orderly than 90% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia High School | 2.36 | 3.39 | 8–4 | 5.7 | +1.04 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 6 | Ingraham High School | 2.05 | 3.07 | 7–4 | 4.9 | +1.02 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 3 | Central Kitsap High School | 2.43 | 3.37 | 8–4 | 5.9 | +0.95 | 1.1 | 18% |
| 2 | Charles Wright Academy | 2.62 | 3.31 | 8–4 | 6.5 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 5 | Bainbridge High School | 2.80 | 2.86 | 7–5 | 6.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 4 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 2.79 | 2.79 | 7–5 | 7.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 8 | Port Townsend High School | 2.01 | 0.97 | 3–8 | 5.0 | −1.04 | 1.1 | 94% |
| 7 | Gig Harbor High School | 2.52 | 0.93 | 3–8 | 6.2 | −1.59 | 2.7 | 99% |
| 9 | Capital High School | 1.62 | -0.62 | 1–10 | 4.0 | −2.25 | 3.2 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Mcclure | Olympia High School | 0.71 | 1.75 | 8–4 | 5.7 | +1.04 | 1.3 | 15% |
| Jacob Jones | Ingraham High School | 1.01 | 2.03 | 7–4 | 4.9 | +1.02 | 1.2 | 16% |
| Jeffrey Scholfield | Central Kitsap High School | 0.81 | 1.76 | 8–4 | 5.9 | +0.95 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Alexander Cherevatenko | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 0.13 | 0.13 | 7–5 | 7.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Willy Walden | Port Townsend High School | 0.41 | -0.63 | 3–8 | 5.0 | −1.04 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Bailey Rainbolt | Gig Harbor High School | 0.34 | -1.48 | 2–6 | 4.6 | −1.81 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Alijah Manzanares | Capital High School | 0.33 | -1.92 | 1–10 | 4.0 | −2.25 | 3.2 | 99% |
| No Show | Capital High School | 0.50 | -1.75 | 1–10 | 4.0 | −2.25 | 3.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Tarriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tarriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tarriers | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tarriers | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tarriers | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Tarriers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tides | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Tides | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Tarriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tarriers | 1-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Tarriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
