Port Townsend High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 (fleet 0.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–17 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 0–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 14–7 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 17–15 against 19.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.08 | -0.29 | 5–6 | 7.5 | −1.37 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 2023-04-22 | Silver Division Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 0.87 | 2.61 | 9–1 | 7.2 | +1.74 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 2022-04-30 | Silver Division Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.69 | -0.35 | 3–8 | 5.0 | −1.04 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Silver Division Team Race Seeding Regatta | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| NWISA Open Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Champs Silver | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.4 | 1.92 |
| Cascadia Cup Gold High School | Skipper | A | 2 | 11.5 | 0.36 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Silver Division Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Seafarers Cup-SILVER | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.3 | 0.41 |
| NWISA Silver Fleet Champs | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.0 | 0.97 |
| Islands Cup-Silver | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.6 | 0.56 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Cascadia Cup (Gold) | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 0.82 |
| Bainbridge Fleet Race - Oct 2021 | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 0.38 |
| 2021 NWISA Fall Champs - Silver Fleet | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 0.57 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Kingston Open Leap Day | Crew | B | 4 | 8.8 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Zia Magill |  University of Vermont |
'29 |
| ISSA | Zia Magill |  West Sound Academy |
'24 |
| ISSA | Zia Magill |  Central Kitsap High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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