| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Blues | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
West Sound Academy | Hawks | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 3–3 |
| 6 | |
Bainbridge High School | Gold | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Olympic High School (WA) | Trojans | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,792 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 17 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.634 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.97 ± 0.53: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 7% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Blues | 1.61 | 3.99 | 5–1 | 3.2 | +2.38 | 2.3 | 10% |
| 5 | Gig Harbor High School Tides | -0.04 | 2.17 | 3–2 | 1.4 | +2.21 | 2.0 | 11% |
| 4 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 1.07 | 2.02 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.95 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 1 | Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions | 3.62 | 3.47 | 5–1 | 5.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 7 | Olympic High School (WA) Trojans | -1.09 | -4.09 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| 3 | West Sound Academy Hawks | 2.05 | -0.95 | 0–2 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 6 | Bainbridge High School Gold | 2.53 | -1.21 | 1–4 | 3.5 | −3.73 | 5.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alden Lemon | Bainbridge High School | 0.48 | 2.86 | 5–1 | 3.2 | +2.38 | 2.3 | 10% |
| Tru Jackson | Gig Harbor High School | 0.11 | 2.31 | 3–2 | 1.4 | +2.21 | 2.0 | 11% |
| Genie Greenfield | Gig Harbor High School | 0.08 | 2.29 | 3–2 | 1.4 | +2.21 | 2.0 | 11% |
| Amber Faragalli | Central Kitsap High School | -0.13 | 0.82 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.95 | 0.4 | 42% |
| Stella Saleh | Bainbridge High School | 0.79 | 0.45 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Logan Duthie | Olympic High School (WA) | -0.32 | -3.32 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Gretchen Fiscus | Bainbridge High School | 0.57 | -3.16 | 1–4 | 3.5 | −3.73 | 5.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blues | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Blues | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Gold | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Tides | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Blues | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Gold | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 11 | |
Blues | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Tides | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Lions | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tides | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Blues | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tides | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blues | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
