Bellarmine Preparatory School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.09 (fleet 1.86) | 141 of 231 | −0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–18 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 7–5 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 11–10 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 25–18 against 28.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.34 | 1.52 | 7–5 | 6.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2025-04-26 | NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.45 | -1.11 | 1–6 | 3.6 | −2.56 | 3.3 | >99% |
| 2025-04-12 | Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 1.45 | 0.85 | 10–4 | 11.1 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2024-04-20 | Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.12 | 0.97 | 5–1 | 5.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2023-04-22 | Olympia Silver Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 0.60 | 1.08 | 2–2 | 1.7 | +0.49 | 0.1 | 55% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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