| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 10–4 |
| 2 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 10–4 |
| 3 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 7–7 |
| 4 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 8–6 |
| 5 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 4–10 |
| 6 |  |
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | 3–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,963 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 42 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.573 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.23 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 26% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gig Harbor High School | 2.04 | 3.26 | 10–4 | 7.3 | +1.22 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 3 | North Kitsap High School | 1.51 | 2.07 | 7–7 | 5.7 | +0.56 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 6 | Port Angeles High School | 0.32 | 0.09 | 3–11 | 3.4 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 5 | Central Kitsap High School | 0.97 | 0.44 | 4–10 | 5.1 | −0.53 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School | 2.35 | 1.78 | 8–6 | 9.3 | −0.57 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2 | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 3.38 | 2.78 | 10–4 | 11.1 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristian Filyes | Gig Harbor High School | 0.15 | 1.37 | 10–4 | 7.3 | +1.22 | 1.8 | 10% |
| Avery Lawley | Central Kitsap High School | 0.17 | 0.94 | 2–4 | 1.3 | +0.76 | 0.3 | 39% |
| Charlie Kasten | Port Angeles High School | 0.21 | -0.02 | 3–11 | 3.4 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 71% |
| Andrew Corson | Port Angeles High School | -0.19 | -0.42 | 3–11 | 3.4 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 71% |
| Ella Baker | Bainbridge High School | 0.22 | -0.35 | 8–6 | 9.3 | −0.57 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Charlotte Cheng-Sun | Bainbridge High School | 0.57 | -0.00 | 8–6 | 9.3 | −0.57 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Daniel Chapman | Bainbridge High School | 0.90 | 0.32 | 8–6 | 9.3 | −0.57 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Genie Greenfield | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 0.99 | 0.39 | 10–4 | 11.1 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 87% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Roughriders | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Tides | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Tides | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Dogfish | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Lions | 2-3-6 DSQ |
| 15 | |
Roughriders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tides | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Roughriders | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Roughriders | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Lions | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Tides | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Tides | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-3-6 |
| 33 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tides | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 41 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Roughriders | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Roughriders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | Charlie Yando '28 Finn Deprez '25 Tristian Filyes '28 |
Ryan Wilkins '27 Wesley Wysham '28 Aiden Spiker '28 |
|
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | Genie Greenfield '26 Hannah Welch '25 William Embick '26 |
Alex Cain '28 Cameron Ramirez '26 Agatha Pape '26 |
|
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | Elijah Dekker '26 Kaisen Olkonen '27 Victor Gehring '26 |
Elliot Myhre '28 Eli Carlson '28 Amber Faragalli '26 Ian Anthony '27 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Charlotte Cheng-Sun '26 Daniel Chapman '27 Ella Baker '27 |
Jules Dewey '29 Owen Willhoit '28 Elijah Owen '28 |
|
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | Avery Lawley '25 Elsa Bischoff '26 Keller Matthews '26 Maya Zander '26 |
Elsa Bischoff '26 Avery Lawley '25 Tyler Jenne '27 John Tabone '28 Liem Webb Magallanez '27 |
|
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | Andrew Corson '25 Caelan Prater '27 Charlie Kasten '26 |
Isaac Anderson '27 Sophia Schiess '26 Gryphon Shields '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
