Gig Harbor High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 (fleet 0.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–16 (43%) as crew 14–9 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 12–16 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | — | 14–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 25–25 against 19.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 0.89 | 0.14 | 4–12 | 5.4 | −0.75 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 0.65 | 2.81 | 8–4 | 4.2 | +2.16 | 4.6 | 1% |
| 2025-05-17 | National Invitational Tournament | crew | 1.26 | 1.60 | 3–5 | 2.5 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2025-04-12 | Team Race Seeding Regatta | crew | 1.47 | 2.69 | 10–4 | 7.3 | +1.22 | 1.8 | 10% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Ranking Regatta #2 (Last Chance Qualifier) | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 0.70 |
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| 2026 ISSA Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 18.4 | -0.17 |
| 2026 NWISA Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| 2026 NWISA Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 2.53 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Fall Championships | Crew | A | 10 | 4.8 | +0.03 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranking Regatta #3 | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.2 | 0.42 |
| NWISA Team Race Championships | Crew | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| NWISA Open Fleet Race Championships SILVER | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 1.16 |
| National Invitational Tournament | Crew | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Team Race Seeding Regatta | Crew | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| South Regionals | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.7 | -1.05 |
| Fall Championships Silver Fleet | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 0.09 |
| Cascadia Cup Silver | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | -0.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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