| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 6–3 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 5–4 |
| 4 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 5–4 |
| 5 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 3–5 |
| 6 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 2–6 |
| 7 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,148 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 25 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.548 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.53: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Olympia High School | 3.88 | 5.30 | 4–1 | 2.9 | +1.42 | 0.8 | 29% |
| 2 | Gig Harbor High School | 3.80 | 4.68 | 5–3 | 3.8 | +0.88 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 5 | Capital High School | 2.27 | 3.12 | 3–4 | 2.0 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 4 | Roosevelt High School | 3.81 | 4.13 | 3–3 | 2.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 1 | Bainbridge High School | 5.24 | 5.15 | 7–2 | 7.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 6 | Anacortes High School | 2.65 | 1.90 | 2–6 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 7 | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 3.27 | 0.71 | 1–6 | 3.6 | −2.56 | 3.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Timms | Olympia High School | 1.82 | 3.24 | 4–1 | 2.9 | +1.42 | 0.8 | 29% |
| Bailey Rainbolt | Gig Harbor High School | 1.25 | 2.13 | 5–3 | 3.8 | +0.88 | 0.6 | 30% |
| Alijah Manzanares | Capital High School | 0.72 | 1.57 | 3–4 | 2.0 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Aidan Budelman | Capital High School | 0.95 | 1.80 | 3–4 | 2.0 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Adi Vannice | Capital High School | 0.56 | 1.41 | 3–4 | 2.0 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 32% |
| Roan Olson | Roosevelt High School | 1.57 | 1.89 | 3–3 | 2.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Ethan Lee | Roosevelt High School | 1.43 | 1.74 | 3–3 | 2.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Will Peters | Anacortes High School | 0.85 | 0.10 | 2–6 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Allison Lehmann | Anacortes High School | 0.85 | 0.10 | 2–6 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Genie Greenfield | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 0.97 | -1.58 | 1–6 | 3.6 | −2.56 | 3.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tides | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Tides | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tides | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Tides | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Lions | 2-3-6 |
| 30 | |
Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
| 32 | |
Tides | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 33 | |
Rough Riders | def. | |
Tides | ||
| 34 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Bears | ||
| 35 | |
Bears | def. | |
Tides | ||
| 36 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Rough Riders | ||
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
