Capital High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.41 (fleet 0.69) | 210 of 231 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–32 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 7–14 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 6–10 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 15–32 against 17.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 0.63 | 0.26 | 4–8 | 4.6 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2026-04-11 | Silverdale Team Race Gold | skipper | 0.59 | 0.11 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.49 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2026-04-11 | NWISA TR Backup Qualifier | skipper | 0.51 | 1.39 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.88 | 0.2 | 54% |
| 2025-04-26 | NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 0.56 | 1.41 | 3–4 | 2.0 | +0.85 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2025-04-12 | NWISA Gold Team Race Quals | skipper | 0.53 | 0.21 | 3–6 | 3.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2024-04-20 | Open Team Race Qualifier Leschi | skipper | 0.54 | -1.23 | 2–8 | 4.5 | −1.77 | 2.4 | 99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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