| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 3–6 |
| 4 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,963 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 18 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.310 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.51 ± 0.50: an orderly event, more orderly than 79% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 1 | 5.08 school +0.23 | Cyrus Yan / Atlas Montgomery 6–0 Stone Dewey / Emma Jackson 1.75 6–0 Joseph Tappen / Emma Jackson 1.45 3–0 Nelson Dorsey / Atlas Montgomery 1.85 3–0 Stone Dewey / Tatum Mcgee 1.52 3–0 Joseph Tappen / Carson Domansky 1.44 3–0 Nelson Dorsey / Tatum Mcgee 1.74 3–0 | 88% | 9–0 (100%) | +1.1 |
| 2 | Olympia High School Bears | 2 | 3.32 | Alan Timms / Kaden Kim 1.75 Alyssa Leong / Simone Reck Liam Power / Caleigh Mingay 0.65 | 56% | 5–4 (56%) | −0.0 |
| 3 | Capital High School Cougars | 3 | 2.40 | Aidan Budelman / Ryan Solie 1.15 Adi Vannice / Alden Visser 0.53 Alijah Manzanares / Seher Kasmani 0.71 | 38% | 3–6 (33%) | −0.4 |
| 4 | Anacortes High School Seahawks | 4 | 1.46 | Cameron Furin / Sophie Reddick 0.80 Will Peters / Juniper Reiss-Landreau 0.82 Chase Johnson / Emri Vincent | 19% | 1–8 (11%) | −0.7 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bainbridge High School | 5.08 | 8.08 | 9–0 | 7.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 30% |
| 2 | Olympia High School | 3.32 | 3.29 | 5–4 | 5.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 3 | Capital High School | 2.40 | 2.07 | 3–6 | 3.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 4 | Anacortes High School | 1.46 | 0.63 | 1–8 | 1.7 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Timms | Olympia High School | 1.75 | 1.72 | 5–4 | 5.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Alyssa Leong | Olympia High School | 0.91 | 0.89 | 5–4 | 5.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Aidan Budelman | Capital High School | 1.15 | 0.82 | 3–6 | 3.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Adi Vannice | Capital High School | 0.53 | 0.21 | 3–6 | 3.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Alijah Manzanares | Capital High School | 0.71 | 0.39 | 3–6 | 3.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Will Peters | Anacortes High School | 0.82 | -0.02 | 1–8 | 1.7 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 86% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Cyrus Yan '26 Joseph Tappen '25 Nelson Dorsey '26 Stone Dewey '26 |
Atlas Montgomery '27 Emma Jackson '26 Carson Domansky '26 Tatum Mcgee '28 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears | Alan Timms '26 Alyssa Leong '26 Liam Power '25 |
Kaden Kim '27 Simone Reck '27 Caleigh Mingay '25 |
|
Capital High School | Cougars | Adi Vannice '28 Aidan Budelman '25 Alijah Manzanares '25 |
Alden Visser '27 Ryan Solie '25 Seher Kasmani '27 |
|
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | Cameron Furin '25 Chase Johnson '27 Will Peters '25 |
Sophie Reddick '27 Emri Vincent '26 Juniper Reiss-Landreau '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
